Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This chart said stocks would fall at the start of this year</li>
<li>It now says we should step back from being too bearish</li>
<li>I am not going to ignore it at this juncture. Here we look at possible reasons why the stock market may see some relief</li>
</ul>


This chart said stocks would fall at the start of this year
It now says we should step back from being too bearish
I am not going to ignore it at this juncture. Here we look at possible reasons why the stock market may see some relief


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>WTI break below 116 wedge support. Fresh long support at 105/108. Oil still looks crowded with shakeout risk if a recovery fails under 115.</li>
<li>Two trade set ups for oil outlined below. Long from 108/105 to test 115 and a short near 115. Energy is the last pillar of strength with exodus risk.</li>
<li>Gold short below bear wedge valid to 1,790/70 to turn long. Copper faces a break below 4.05 floor support (demand constraint). Yield and USD uptick pressure this week.</li>
</ul>


WTI break below 116 wedge support. Fresh long support at 105/108. Oil still looks crowded with shakeout risk if a recovery fails under 115.
Two trade set ups for oil outlined below. Long from 108/105 to test 115 and a short near 115. Energy is the last pillar of strength with exodus risk.
Gold short below bear wedge valid to 1,790/70 to turn long. Copper faces a break below 4.05 floor support (demand constraint). Yield and USD uptick pressure this week.


Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

<ul>
<li>Brent Crude is approaching important levels at $124 and may be about to breakout</li>
<li>The overall picture on the chart indicates a move to $150. If seen with rising yields again, it would yet again provide a negative backdrop for equities.</li>
<li>While the S&amp;P 500 may stretch up to 4,300 in the short term, that would be a sell zone as the medium term picture points to further downside.</li>
</ul>


Brent Crude is approaching important levels at $124 and may be about to breakout
The overall picture on the chart indicates a move to $150. If seen with rising yields again, it would yet again provide a negative backdrop for equities.
While the S&amp;P 500 may stretch up to 4,300 in the short term, that would be a sell zone as the medium term picture points to further downside.


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  </li><li>The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.</li><li>If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.</li></ul>

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Spooky Chart Update IV

This stock market chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has provided great guidance over the past 7 months. It now says we have reached or are...

Shyam Devani

WTI Support Breach

WTI break below 116 wedge support. Fresh long support at 105/108. Oil still looks crowded with shakeout risk if a recovery fails under 115.

Thomas Schroeder

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

A Crude Development

The rise in Oil is a development that cannot be ignored. A rally through $124 on Brent would open the way for not only $139 but possibly $150 -...

Shyam Devani

Positioning and Imbalances

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022. The assumption has been...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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