Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumption</li><li>Demand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to rise</li><li>Preliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpiling</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumptionDemand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to risePreliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpilingThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025</li>
<li>Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative</li>
<li>Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key</li>
</ul>


Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.</li><li>As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.</li><li>And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.</li></ul>

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness</li>
<li>OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise</li>
<li>Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness
OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise
Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors


Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

The decline in Brent crude prices due to weakening spreads and a shift in demand towards petrochemicals and natural gas, accompanied by signs of...

At Any Rate

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioned

Steno Research

Is that It? Commodity Bull Market Over?

Recent US economic data points to potential weakness impacting energy and other commodity sectors, while OPEC+ actions muddies the waters.

Rikki Malik

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research