Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. </li>
<li>We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.</li>
<li>OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.</li>
</ul>


Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. 
We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.
OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

<ul>
<li>August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
<li>September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.</li>
<li>September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.</li>
</ul>


August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.
September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.
September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.


Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.</li>
<li>The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.</li>
<li>We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.</li>
</ul>


We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.
We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.


Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

The VIX collapsed to the lowest since COVID, which makes investors look complacent, especially with our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index still in Frenzy.

Jeroen Blokland

Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

September returns for Equities, High Yield, Corporate Bonds, and Bitcoin tend to be weak, while Treasury and Gold returns are solid.

Jeroen Blokland

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

After the latest FOMC meeting and a dovish-sounding Powell, the odds we have reached the end of the tightening cycle have spiked, boding well for...

Jeroen Blokland