Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
<li>September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.</li>
<li>September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.</li>
</ul>


August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.
September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.
September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.


Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.</li>
<li>The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.</li>
<li>We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.</li>
</ul>


We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.
We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.


Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.</li><li>Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.</li><li>Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.</li></ul>

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.

<ul>
<li>Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.</li>
<li>China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.</li>
</ul>


Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.
China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.


Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

September returns for Equities, High Yield, Corporate Bonds, and Bitcoin tend to be weak, while Treasury and Gold returns are solid.

Jeroen Blokland

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

After the latest FOMC meeting and a dovish-sounding Powell, the odds we have reached the end of the tightening cycle have spiked, boding well for...

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: Timing the Beta Exit

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions

Steno Research

Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Markets are incredibly eager to discount lower inflation, pushing the Fear & Frenzy Sentiment further into Frenzy territory.

Jeroen Blokland