Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.</li>
</ul>


The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.


<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index scenarios call for a long US Treasuries, short (US) Equities strategy in each scenario.</li>
<li>Financial conditions paint a rosier picture for equities than the ISM Manufacturing, yet downside prevails. </li>
<li>Despite the uptick in US Macro surprises, global economic surprises are dropping. As a result, a massive gap has opened between the MSCI World Index performance and macro surprises. </li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index scenarios call for a long US Treasuries, short (US) Equities strategy in each scenario.
Financial conditions paint a rosier picture for equities than the ISM Manufacturing, yet downside prevails. 
Despite the uptick in US Macro surprises, global economic surprises are dropping. As a result, a massive gap has opened between the MSCI World Index performance and macro surprises. 


Macro Market Indicators (June 2023)(Update)

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.</li>
<li>Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. </li>
<li>None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. </li>
</ul>


Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.
Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. 
None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. 


Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.</li>
<li>Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.</li>
<li>Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation

Valuation measures reveal pricy equities and cheaper Treasuries. A comprehensive overview of valuation across asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Market Indicators (June 2023)(Update)

We look at 'Macro Market Indicators' that say something about the direction of markets and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Market Indicators (June 2023)

We look at 'Macro Market Indicators' that say something about the direction of markets and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Shedding more light on what US yield curve inversion actually means for the likelihood of US recessions and asset class returns.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

The AI Boom is real but also poses two big challenges for investors. Also real is the likelihood of another credit event now that bond yields are...

Jeroen Blokland