Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND has proposed to lower its offer from A$5.50 to A$4.30 per share. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> Board will provide shareholders with an update next week.</li>
<li>DND's justification for a lower offer based on the potential undertaking to the ACCC and the current state of the financial markets smacks of opportunism.    </li>
<li>The proposed lower bid offers no premium to our valuation range or the undisturbed price. The Board should reject the lower offer and instead reignite interest from past suitors. </li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND has proposed to lower its offer from A$5.50 to A$4.30 per share. The Link Administration (LNK AU) Board will provide shareholders with an update next week.
DND's justification for a lower offer based on the potential undertaking to the ACCC and the current state of the financial markets smacks of opportunism.    
The proposed lower bid offers no premium to our valuation range or the undisturbed price. The Board should reject the lower offer and instead reignite interest from past suitors. 


Link’s Lower Offer of A$4.30 from DND Fails to Excite

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/dye-and-durham-re-thinks-link-bid-revised-offer-expected-20220626-p5awns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> as soon as this week.</li>
<li>Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. </li>
<li>Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for Link Administration (LNK AU) as soon as this week.
Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. 
Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and PEXA Group (PXA AU) share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. 


Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

<ul>
<li>The ACCC’s Statement of Issues noted “significant preliminary competition concerns” in relation to Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>. The findings will be announced on 8 September.</li>
<li>There is no easy fix. We think that satisfying the ACCC requires a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> stake disposal which could trigger a material adverse clause.</li>
<li>Link aims to proceed with the 13 July scheme meeting but this is a broken deal. While our SoTP suggests upside, there are no short-term positive catalysts.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC’s Statement of Issues noted “significant preliminary competition concerns” in relation to Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU). The findings will be announced on 8 September.
There is no easy fix. We think that satisfying the ACCC requires a PEXA Group (PXA AU) stake disposal which could trigger a material adverse clause.
Link aims to proceed with the 13 July scheme meeting but this is a broken deal. While our SoTP suggests upside, there are no short-term positive catalysts.


ACCC’s Concerns Likely to End in a Link-DND Deal Bust

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.</li>
<li>MCB says the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.</li>
</ul>


The NTT (9432 JP) / NTT Data (9613 JP) transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. 
Both Link Administration (LNK AU) and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.
MCB says the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.


Last Week in Event SPACE:  NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

Australia

Computershare Limited operates share registries and computer bureaus which includes the administration of employee share and option plans and the provision of software that specializes in share registry, financial and stock markets. The Company also provides corporate trust services and acts as a trustee for clients' debt offerings in certain markets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Computershare Ltd (CPU AU)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

Link’s Lower Offer of A$4.30 from DND Fails to Excite

DND's lower offer of A$4.30 smacks of opportunism. The Board should reject the lower offer and instead go it alone and reignite interest from past...

Arun George

Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Renewed bid spec is an unexpected positive catalyst. Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the market sell-off points to a Link valuation range of...

Arun George

ACCC’s Concerns Likely to End in a Link-DND Deal Bust

The deal is all but bust due to the ACCC's concerns. Our SoTP is A$3.74 which is a 12% upside to the last close. However, we would stay away as...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)