IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND has proposed a revised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> offer to address any FCA redress payments. Around A$1.00 per share will hang on the outcome of the FCA investigation.</li>
<li>The Link Board has said it cannot recommend the revised proposal based on value, structure and alternatives available to Link. We agree with the Board’s view.</li>
<li>The scheme is all but dead. The shares are now a back-end play and remain attractive for value investors.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND has proposed a revised Link Administration (LNK AU) offer to address any FCA redress payments. Around A$1.00 per share will hang on the outcome of the FCA investigation.
The Link Board has said it cannot recommend the revised proposal based on value, structure and alternatives available to Link. We agree with the Board’s view.
The scheme is all but dead. The shares are now a back-end play and remain attractive for value investors.


Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off

<ul>
<li>FCA approval, a condition precedent, will be granted subject to a condition that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> makes funds available to cover any redress payments related to the Woodford matters.</li>
<li>The FCA’s maximum redress payment is £306 million. The timeline and amount of the final FCA fine remain unknown. Dye&amp;Durham/DND and Link will struggle to find a resolution.</li>
<li>With a 30 September end date, the deal is teetering on collapse. The share price may prove attractive for long-term value investors as it reflects a sizeable FCA fine.</li>
</ul>


FCA approval, a condition precedent, will be granted subject to a condition that Link Administration (LNK AU) makes funds available to cover any redress payments related to the Woodford matters.
The FCA’s maximum redress payment is £306 million. The timeline and amount of the final FCA fine remain unknown. Dye&amp;Durham/DND and Link will struggle to find a resolution.
With a 30 September end date, the deal is teetering on collapse. The share price may prove attractive for long-term value investors as it reflects a sizeable FCA fine.


Link’s Scheme on Life Support as the FCA Lands a Heavy Blow

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> at A$4.81 per share has received approvals from the ACCC and the Central Bank of Ireland.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent remaining are FIRB, UK FCA and Luxembourg approvals. The second court hearing date has been adjourned to 15 September.</li>
<li>The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely complete. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment is 4.8% and 151%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s proposed acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU) at A$4.81 per share has received approvals from the ACCC and the Central Bank of Ireland.
Key conditions precedent remaining are FIRB, UK FCA and Luxembourg approvals. The second court hearing date has been adjourned to 15 September.
The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely complete. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment is 4.8% and 151%, respectively.


Link’s Scheme in the Home Stretch by Securing ACCC and CBI Approval

<ul>
<li>Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.</li>
<li>The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).</li>
</ul>


Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, Link Administration (LNK AU) shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.
Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.
The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).


Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Australia

Computershare Limited operates share registries and computer bureaus which includes the administration of employee share and option plans and the provision of software that specializes in share registry, financial and stock markets. The Company also provides corporate trust services and acts as a trustee for clients' debt offerings in certain markets.

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Computershare Ltd (CPU AU)

Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off

The scheme is all but dead. The Link Board will not recommend the revised proposal. The shares are now a back-end play and remain attractive for...

Arun George

Link’s Scheme on Life Support as the FCA Lands a Heavy Blow

With a 30 September end date, the deal is teetering on collapse. The share price may prove attractive for long-term value investors as it reflects...

Arun George

Link’s Scheme in the Home Stretch by Securing ACCC and CBI Approval

The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely be completed. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment...

Arun George

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

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