Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January</li>
<li>Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May</li>
<li>As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January
Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May
As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&amp;P 500


<ul>
<li>This is a follow up chart of the VIX Index that was shared last week</li>
<li>While we have dipped in the very short term, the underlying pattern warns of a significant rise</li>
<li>Such a development is likely to be seen with a falling S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


This is a follow up chart of the VIX Index that was shared last week
While we have dipped in the very short term, the underlying pattern warns of a significant rise
Such a development is likely to be seen with a falling S&amp;P 500


<ul>
<li>The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions</li>
<li>This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks</li>
<li>As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions
This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks
As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell</li>
<li>Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears</li>
<li>The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action</li>
</ul>


Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell
Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears
The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action


United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

VIX Index on the Move

Further gains on the VIX Index after the breakout on Friday warrants serious concern for the S&P 500 in the near term. Further stock market...

Shyam Devani

VIX Index: The Pullback Before the Rise

The VIX Index is still lining up in a manner that suggests much higher levels thereby indicating a weaker S&P 500 over the medium term - several...

Shyam Devani

VIX Index Shows Trouble Ahead

The VIX Index is showing signs of moving up again which in turn indicate a decline on the S&P 500 over the coming days and weeks

Shyam Devani

The MAD Report - Cross Market Analysis

A weekly report looking at price action across major markets. In the short term both a stock market and a bond market squeeze seem possible in the...

Shyam Devani