Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. </li>
<li>We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.</li>
<li>OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.</li>
</ul>


Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. 
We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.
OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chicago-board-options-exchange-volatility-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31501:1" rel="noopener">VIX INDEX</a> has reached very OVERSOLD levels, it could bounce soon. Our models predict a short-lived bounce, probably 1-week.</li>
<li>An increased VIX could trigger panic selling also in Asia-Pacific markets, dragging down returns and increasing volatility.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P500 is also WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, the combination of VIX OVERSOLD and SPX OVERBOUGHT for us is a clear indication: <strong>WEEKLY pullback incoming</strong>!</li>
</ul>


The VIX INDEX has reached very OVERSOLD levels, it could bounce soon. Our models predict a short-lived bounce, probably 1-week.
An increased VIX could trigger panic selling also in Asia-Pacific markets, dragging down returns and increasing volatility.
The S&amp;P500 is also WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, the combination of VIX OVERSOLD and SPX OVERBOUGHT for us is a clear indication: WEEKLY pullback incoming!


EQD | A Quick US/Global Equities Correction IS Possible Soon (...a Really OVERSOLD VIX...)

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

The VIX collapsed to the lowest since COVID, which makes investors look complacent, especially with our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index still in Frenzy.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | A Quick US/Global Equities Correction IS Possible Soon (...a Really OVERSOLD VIX...)

The VIX index is very, very oversold and could spike soon. This could generate sell-offs in US and global equities. The spike should be short...

Nico Rosti

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

The VIX collapsed to the lowest since COVID, which makes investors look complacent, especially with our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index still in Frenzy.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | A Quick US/Global Equities Correction IS Possible Soon (...a Really OVERSOLD VIX...)

​The VIX index is very, very oversold and could spike soon. This could generate sell-offs in US and global equities. The spike should be short...

Nico Rosti

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

The VIX index is very, very oversold and could spike soon. This could generate sell-offs in US and global equities. The spike should be short...