Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has become sufficiently short-term oversold that a relief rally is imminent.</li>
<li>However, oversold markets can become more oversold and market internals could be supportive of one final sentiment flush before a durable bottom can be seen.</li>
</ul>


In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike.
The S&amp;P 500 has become sufficiently short-term oversold that a relief rally is imminent.
However, oversold markets can become more oversold and market internals could be supportive of one final sentiment flush before a durable bottom can be seen.


Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chicago-board-options-exchange-volatility-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31501:1" rel="noopener">VIX INDEX</a> last week reversed up and briefly touched 17, it's OVERBOUGHT according to MRM WEEKLY SHORT model.</li>
<li>VIX Index could pull back a bit this week, then go up again, but not much higher than 18. Volatility should end this coming week, or early the following week.</li>
<li>WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD MRM reading on global markets suggest an imminent bounce, possibly a lasting MONTHLY bounce - unless all of a sudden the market enters a Bear Market.</li>
</ul>


The VIX INDEX last week reversed up and briefly touched 17, it's OVERBOUGHT according to MRM WEEKLY SHORT model.
VIX Index could pull back a bit this week, then go up again, but not much higher than 18. Volatility should end this coming week, or early the following week.
WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD MRM reading on global markets suggest an imminent bounce, possibly a lasting MONTHLY bounce - unless all of a sudden the market enters a Bear Market.


EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY: Has Volatility Already Peaked?

<ul>
<li>The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.</li>
<li>Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.</li>
<li>Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.</li>
</ul>


The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike. The market has...

Cam Hui

EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY: Has Volatility Already Peaked?

The VIX Index is OVERBOUGHT, it could go higher, but not significantly higher, then volatility should deflate. Global markets show signs of an...

Nico Rosti

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike. The market has...

Cam Hui

EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY: Has Volatility Already Peaked?

​The VIX Index is OVERBOUGHT, it could go higher, but not significantly higher, then volatility should deflate. Global markets show signs of an...

Nico Rosti

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

The VIX Index is OVERBOUGHT, it could go higher, but not significantly higher, then volatility should deflate. Global markets show signs of an...