Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

The US consumer price index (both headline and core) rose at an annualized pace of 10.8% MoM in June 2021. For 2Q (April-June) 2021, the core CPI increased at an annualized pace of 10%, while the headline CPI increased 9.2% (annualized) in 2Q 2021. We had predicted precisely this outcome on 12 June 2020 (13 months ago) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/labour-market-slack-remains-but-fomc-will-need-to-tighten-by-mid-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40185" rel="noopener">Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021</a> because inflation would rise markedly. While the FOMC has insisted that inflation is transitory, it actually began a stealth tightening in May 2021, engineering a month-on-month decline in the monetary base that month. CPI inflation is currently being under-estimated, because the Housing component is properly updated only half-yearly after a complete national survey of rentals and owners' equivalent rents (OER, the implicit rent that would be paid by homeowners were they to rent rather than own their home). The Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index was up 14.9% YoY in April 2021 (the latest data, released at end-June 2021), and this is bound to enter the CPI and PCE price index in 2H 2021. (Housing is considered an investment, not consumption, so rents and OER are the consumption portion; housing prices are not directly relevant to CPI, the cost of using housing -- rents -- are). Having risen just 2.6% YoY in June 2021, Housing is likely to rise much more sharply in 2H 2021, pushing up headline and core CPI (and also PCE, but less because of its lower weight). The labour market retains some sectoral slack in the hospitality and tourism-related sectors, but appropriately skilled labour is increasingly in short supply elsewhere in the economy.  Despite a high base from June 2020 (5% YoY), average weekly earnings (wages) were up 3.6% YoY in June 2021. Wage inflation will likely exceed 4% YoY in 3Q 2021, contributing additionally to inflationary pressure. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a non-voting member of the FOMC this year) has already called for tapering to begin (as "substantial progress" has already been made on the Fed's inflation and unemployment goals). While Fed Chair Powell insisted in his House testimony this week that tapering remains "a ways off", he told the Senate on the following day, "...of course we're not comfortable with" the fact that the reopening of the economy had "driven inflation well above 2%". The 27-28 July FOMC meeting will likely see more intense discussion of tapering, and we think formal (not merely stealth) tapering will be begin no later than the September meeting. We remain cautious about equities, although the strong recovery makes cyclicals and consumer cyclicals attractive.

The US consumer price index (both headline and core) rose at an annualized pace of 10.8% MoM in June 2021. For 2Q (April-June) 2021, the core CPI increased at an annualized pace of 10%, while the headline CPI increased 9.2% (annualized) in 2Q 2021. We had predicted precisely this outcome on 12 June 2020 (13 months ago) in Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021 because inflation would rise markedly. While the FOMC has insisted that inflation is transitory, it actually began a stealth tightening in May 2021, engineering a month-on-month decline in the monetary base that month. CPI inflation is currently being under-estimated, because the Housing component is properly updated only half-yearly after a complete national survey of rentals and owners' equivalent rents (OER, the implicit rent that would be paid by homeowners were they to rent rather than own their home). The Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index was up 14.9% YoY in April 2021 (the latest data, released at end-June 2021), and this is bound to enter the CPI and PCE price index in 2H 2021. (Housing is considered an investment, not consumption, so rents and OER are the consumption portion; housing prices are not directly relevant to CPI, the cost of using housing -- rents -- are). Having risen just 2.6% YoY in June 2021, Housing is likely to rise much more sharply in 2H 2021, pushing up headline and core CPI (and also PCE, but less because of its lower weight). The labour market retains some sectoral slack in the hospitality and tourism-related sectors, but appropriately skilled labour is increasingly in short supply elsewhere in the economy.  Despite a high base from June 2020 (5% YoY), average weekly earnings (wages) were up 3.6% YoY in June 2021. Wage inflation will likely exceed 4% YoY in 3Q 2021, contributing additionally to inflationary pressure. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a non-voting member of the FOMC this year) has already called for tapering to begin (as "substantial progress" has already been made on the Fed's inflation and unemployment goals). While Fed Chair Powell insisted in his House testimony this week that tapering remains "a ways off", he told the Senate on the following day, "...of course we're not comfortable with" the fact that the reopening of the economy had "driven inflation well above 2%". The 27-28 July FOMC meeting will likely see more intense discussion of tapering, and we think formal (not merely stealth) tapering will be begin no later than the September meeting. We remain cautious about equities, although the strong recovery makes cyclicals and consumer cyclicals attractive. 

US Wages Are Resurgent, Even if Markets Haven't Noticed; Keep Your Eye on Inflation

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-equities-time-to-get-defensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51332" rel="noopener">US Equities: Time to Get Defensive</a>These comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see US Equities: Time to Get DefensiveThese comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

The VIX Index has bounced off key levels over the past 24 hoursA close above 21.85%, if and when seen, would be an important break that would then argue for a test of at least 27% if not higher. None of what is suggested on this chart at the moment looks good for the S&amp;P 500

The VIX Index has bounced off key levels over the past 24 hoursA close above 21.85%, if and when seen, would be an important break that would then argue for a test of at least 27% if not higher. None of what is suggested on this chart at the moment looks good for the S&amp;P 500

With the US economy growing 6.4%QoQsaar in 1Q 2021,  the output gap has narrowed to just 2.1% below its potential growth path. Headline inflation is already at 2.6% YoY, and likely to exceed 3% in 2Q 2021. While the FOMC reiterated its determination to keep adding US$120 billion to its balance sheet every month, it will be impossible for it to stick to this commitment in the face of a soaring economy and roaring labour market. Expect monetary tightening surprises ahead!

With the US economy growing 6.4%QoQsaar in 1Q 2021,  the output gap has narrowed to just 2.1% below its potential growth path. Headline inflation is already at 2.6% YoY, and likely to exceed 3% in 2Q 2021. While the FOMC reiterated its determination to keep adding US$120 billion to its balance sheet every month, it will be impossible for it to stick to this commitment in the face of a soaring economy and roaring labour market. Expect monetary tightening surprises ahead! 

Biden Stimulus+ Will Be Inflationary; Policy Stability Is Enabling a More Leftward Tilt

Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Technical Analysis

The VIX Index has made three lower lows while momentum has made three higher lowsThis divergence is a short term warning sign that the days ahead may well see a “pop” on the IndexSuch a development, if it unfolds, would almost inevitably be seen with a fall on the S&amp;P 500, even if briefly.

The VIX Index has made three lower lows while momentum has made three higher lowsThis divergence is a short term warning sign that the days ahead may well see a “pop” on the IndexSuch a development, if it unfolds, would almost inevitably be seen with a fall on the S&amp;P 500, even if briefly.

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

US Wages Are Resurgent, Even if Markets Haven't Noticed; Keep Your Eye on Inflation

Core CPI rose 10% annualized in 2Q2021; rentals will reflect surging house prices in 2H 2021. Wage inflation in June was 3.6%YoY on a high base....

Prasenjit K. Basu

VIX Index: How Concerned Should We Be?

The signs on the VIX Index not only show a historical similarity to the aftermath of the last crisis but also complement the bearish signs seen on...

Shyam Devani

VIX: Any Higher and There’s Trouble

Developments on the VIX Index suggest we are probably going to enter a short term period of higher volatility that is likely to see a lower S&P 500

Shyam Devani

Biden Stimulus+ Will Be Inflationary; Policy Stability Is Enabling a More Leftward Tilt

Monetary tightening surprises are ahead, given that PCE is growing over 10% and real GDP 6.4%. The roaring labour market will make it impossible...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Top of The "Pops"

Fresh signs warn of a "pop" on the VIX Index which in turn suggest a decline on the S&P 500, even if briefly, as we approach Q2, 2021.

Shyam Devani