Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TME reported 4Q2021 results on Monday. Revenue for the quarter decreased 8.7% YoY to RMB7.61bn (vs consensus RMB7.66bn) and reported OP decreased 47.3% YoY to RMB682m (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).</li>
<li>Revenue from Online music services grew single digit (4%) for the first time while revenue from Social Entertainment services dropped further during the quarter.</li>
<li>TME expects its revenues to decline in 2022 as it expects the social entertainment services business to remain under pressure due to competition and regulatory pressure.</li>
</ul>


TME reported 4Q2021 results on Monday. Revenue for the quarter decreased 8.7% YoY to RMB7.61bn (vs consensus RMB7.66bn) and reported OP decreased 47.3% YoY to RMB682m (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).
Revenue from Online music services grew single digit (4%) for the first time while revenue from Social Entertainment services dropped further during the quarter.
TME expects its revenues to decline in 2022 as it expects the social entertainment services business to remain under pressure due to competition and regulatory pressure.


TME 4Q Results: Earnings Continue to Weaken

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.</li>
<li>Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.</li>
<li>Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.</li>
</ul>


The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.
Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.
Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, Tencent, Li Ning, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, Tencent, Li Ning, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: 3 Weeks of Inflows Despite Volatility

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.</li>
<li>From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.</li>
<li>Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.
From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.
Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> reported 4Q2021 results last week where revenues increased 50.6% YoY to RMB 5.8bn while operating losses increased to RMB 2bn compared to RMB 903m in 4Q2020.</li>
<li>This marks the lowest YoY growth in top line since 2Q2019. Though all segments experienced YoY growth in revenue, we have observed that the growth is slowing down.</li>
<li>The company also has announced a share buyback of up to US$500m of its ADS over the next 24 months</li>
</ul>



Bilibili Inc (BILI US) reported 4Q2021 results last week where revenues increased 50.6% YoY to RMB 5.8bn while operating losses increased to RMB 2bn compared to RMB 903m in 4Q2020.
This marks the lowest YoY growth in top line since 2Q2019. Though all segments experienced YoY growth in revenue, we have observed that the growth is slowing down.
The company also has announced a share buyback of up to US$500m of its ADS over the next 24 months


Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

TME 4Q Results: Earnings Continue to Weaken

TME's 4Q2021 earnings have further weakened with single-digit growth in online music revenue while social entertainment revenues further decreased...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise

In this insight, we aim to cut through the short-term “noise”, analyse the operational fundamentals for Alibaba Group, and take an updated look at...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows: 3 Weeks of Inflows Despite Volatility

We highlight three weeks of southbound inflows from mainland China and inflows into Meituan, Tencent, Li Ning, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

From 31 Jan to 4 March, most shorted stocks are Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi...

Brian Freitas

Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth

Bilibili's share price has declined further since the company’s earnings announcement which suggests that the investors are concerned over...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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