Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C3Q24 revenue and GAAP net income 2.1%, 18% vs. our estimates and 2.5%, 24% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>We believe the market oversold on BILI because its traffic was rebounding in accelerating fashion, which shall benefit from a consumption recovery now visible into C1Q25. </li>
<li>We maintained our BUY rating and raised our TP to US$22. BILI is our mid-cap TOP PICK.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C3Q24 revenue and GAAP net income 2.1%, 18% vs. our estimates and 2.5%, 24% vs. consensus. 
We believe the market oversold on BILI because its traffic was rebounding in accelerating fashion, which shall benefit from a consumption recovery now visible into C1Q25. 
We maintained our BUY rating and raised our TP to US$22. BILI is our mid-cap TOP PICK.


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili reported 3Q24 results: total revenue was up by 26% YoY to RMB7.31bn, 3/2% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; the company achieved quarterly breakeven and recorded an adjusted net income of RMB236mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB878mn in 3Q23), ahead of our/consensus estimate of RMB195/217mn.</li><li>The solid 3Q24 print is mainly due to the strong performance of new game title SanMou and the effective cost optimization initiatives. Looking ahead to 4Q24E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 21% YoY, with adjusted net margin further expanding to 5.3% (3Q24: 3.2%).</li><li>We lift FY24-26E total revenue forecast by 1-5% in view of the robust game performance. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported 3Q24 results: total revenue was up by 26% YoY to RMB7.31bn, 3/2% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; the company achieved quarterly breakeven and recorded an adjusted net income of RMB236mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB878mn in 3Q23), ahead of our/consensus estimate of RMB195/217mn.The solid 3Q24 print is mainly due to the strong performance of new game title SanMou and the effective cost optimization initiatives. Looking ahead to 4Q24E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 21% YoY, with adjusted net margin further expanding to 5.3% (3Q24: 3.2%).We lift FY24-26E total revenue forecast by 1-5% in view of the robust game performance. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C2Q24 revenue, GAAP operating profit, and GAAP net income in-line, 7.9%, 9.9% vs. our estimates and in-line, 12%, 18% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>BILI’s unique, urban user base and video format give it strong competitive advantage. Further, revenue from &lt;Three Kingdom&gt; game will be significant.</li>
<li>We raise our TP to US$20 and reiterate BUY .  </li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C2Q24 revenue, GAAP operating profit, and GAAP net income in-line, 7.9%, 9.9% vs. our estimates and in-line, 12%, 18% vs. consensus. 
BILI’s unique, urban user base and video format give it strong competitive advantage. Further, revenue from &lt;Three Kingdom&gt; game will be significant.
We raise our TP to US$20 and reiterate BUY .  


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 72% YoY to RMB271mn, better than our/consensus estimate of RMB329/317mn, primarily due to the better-than-expected GPM expansion (+6.8ppt YoY).</li><li>For 3Q24E, we expect total revenue will increase by 22% YoY, and Bili will achieve breakeven and register non-GAAP operating income of RMB184mn, mainly supported by the robust performance of high-margin mobile games and advertising businesses.</li><li>We cut our FY24 adjusted net loss estimate to RMB255mn (previous: RMB710mn) mainly to factor in the better-thanexpected earnings contribution from games and ads business.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 72% YoY to RMB271mn, better than our/consensus estimate of RMB329/317mn, primarily due to the better-than-expected GPM expansion (+6.8ppt YoY).For 3Q24E, we expect total revenue will increase by 22% YoY, and Bili will achieve breakeven and register non-GAAP operating income of RMB184mn, mainly supported by the robust performance of high-margin mobile games and advertising businesses.We cut our FY24 adjusted net loss estimate to RMB255mn (previous: RMB710mn) mainly to factor in the better-thanexpected earnings contribution from games and ads business.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

We roll over our valuation period to FY25E and fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$22.0 (previous: US$20.50). Maintain BUY

CMB International

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

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[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

​Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

We roll over our valuation period to FY25E and fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$22.0 (previous: US$20.50). Maintain BUY

CMB International

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

​Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.

Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....