Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)</li>
<li>1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)</li>
</ul>


981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)
XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)
1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>JD US/3690 HK:JD.com to Launch Self-operated On-Demand Delivery Service. (+/-)</li>
<li>JD US/BABA US/1810 HK:Shanghai expands the products eligible for home appliance subsidies (+/+/+)</li>
<li>BABA US / 700 HK: Alipay suffers brief outage. (-/+)</li>
</ul>


JD US/3690 HK:JD.com to Launch Self-operated On-Demand Delivery Service. (+/-)
JD US/BABA US/1810 HK:Shanghai expands the products eligible for home appliance subsidies (+/+/+)
BABA US / 700 HK: Alipay suffers brief outage. (-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690 HK/BABA/1810 HK/700 HK/BILI/1024 HK/BIDU/20 HK/NTES/SE/GRAB

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> continues to exhibit high volatility. In addition, upside implied volatility trades higher than downside implied volatility.</li>
<li>The unusual structure of the skew supports the implementation of contrarian strategies.</li>
<li>Strategies with a year-end horizon benefit from high liquidity in the listed options market. Several variations of contrarian trades are presented.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) continues to exhibit high volatility. In addition, upside implied volatility trades higher than downside implied volatility.
The unusual structure of the skew supports the implementation of contrarian strategies.
Strategies with a year-end horizon benefit from high liquidity in the listed options market. Several variations of contrarian trades are presented.


EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, Indian deals flow seemed to be the only one continuing unbated despite the US elections overhang from the past week. </li>
<li>On the placements front, there weren't many large deals but we did look at upcoming lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPOs front, Indian deals flow seemed to be the only one continuing unbated despite the US elections overhang from the past week. 
On the placements front, there weren't many large deals but we did look at upcoming lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.</li>
<li>The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. </li>
<li>Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. </li>
</ul>


Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.
The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. 
Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. 


2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690 HK/BABA/1810 HK/700 HK/BILI/1024 HK/BIDU/20 HK/NTES/SE/GRAB

JD.com is launching a self-operated on-demand delivery service, Shanghai expands home appliance subsidies, and Alipay experiences a brief outage.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

​US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690 HK/BABA/1810 HK/700 HK/BILI/1024 HK/BIDU/20 HK/NTES/SE/GRAB

​JD.com is launching a self-operated on-demand delivery service, Shanghai expands home appliance subsidies, and Alipay experiences a brief outage.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

​The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

​We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

JD.com is launching a self-operated on-demand delivery service, Shanghai expands home appliance subsidies, and Alipay experiences a brief outage.

The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...