IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the last close prices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  </li>
<li>The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.</li>
<li>The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).</li>
</ul>


At the last close prices, Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  
The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.
The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share</li>
<li>We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth</li>
<li>Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share
We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth
Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.


ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The newly appointed board of Thailand's NBTC has set up four subcommittees to study the planned merger of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a></strong>and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Previously NBTC was expected to conclude its vetting by the 15 May. That is now unlikely to occur. </li>
<li>In letters to the NBTC, True insisted the DTAC merger must not be delayed from the expected mid-June completion timetable. NBTC is, appropriately, investigating the merger on its own terms.</li>
</ul>


The newly appointed board of Thailand's NBTC has set up four subcommittees to study the planned merger of True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB).
Previously NBTC was expected to conclude its vetting by the 15 May. That is now unlikely to occur. 
In letters to the NBTC, True insisted the DTAC merger must not be delayed from the expected mid-June completion timetable. NBTC is, appropriately, investigating the merger on its own terms.


True/DTAC: Merger Delays As NBTC Board Revamped

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless</li>
<li>We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.</li>
<li>We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless
We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.
We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.


ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 95% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 36%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 95% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 36%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 36

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

DTAC/True Merger VTO Risk/Reward

The DTAC/True merger hinges on regulatory approval. The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread to the div-adjusted...

Arun George

ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF, implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

True/DTAC: Merger Delays As NBTC Board Revamped

I still think the trade is to go long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio. If the deal breaks, you are long DTAC vs TRUE with a lower...

David Blennerhassett

ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year

We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 36

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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