Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless</li>
<li>We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.</li>
<li>We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless
We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.
We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.


ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 95% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 36%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 95% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 36%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 36

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a></strong> / <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a></strong> merger.</li>
<li>At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. </li>
<li>Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the True Corp (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. 
Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.


<ul>
<li>Upgrade to BUY rating with new TP of Bt269 (up 19% from previous TP), based on DCF, implying 24.1xPE’22. Analyst meeting came out with positive tone about new strategic direction</li>
<li>Expect Enterprise revenue to contribute 20% of total revenue by 2025. Management believes this segment will reach 20% of total revenue by 2024.We believe differently as we expect further competition</li>
<li>Revised 22E and 23E net profit upwards by 4% and 13%, respectively, to factor in high revenue growth. While 2022 will demonstrate healthy net profit growth, we believe enterprise segment </li>
</ul>


Upgrade to BUY rating with new TP of Bt269 (up 19% from previous TP), based on DCF, implying 24.1xPE’22. Analyst meeting came out with positive tone about new strategic direction
Expect Enterprise revenue to contribute 20% of total revenue by 2025. Management believes this segment will reach 20% of total revenue by 2024.We believe differently as we expect further competition
Revised 22E and 23E net profit upwards by 4% and 13%, respectively, to factor in high revenue growth. While 2022 will demonstrate healthy net profit growth, we believe enterprise segment 


ADVANC: 5G and Enterprise Segment Will Drive Strong Growth in 2022

<ul>
<li>Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G</li>
<li>Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war</li>
<li>As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.</li>
</ul>


Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G
Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war
As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.


ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year

We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 36

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

NBTC To Decide On True/DTAC Merger

Long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. If the deal goes through, you are long deal risk at a...

David Blennerhassett

ADVANC: 5G and Enterprise Segment Will Drive Strong Growth in 2022

Upgrade to BUY rating with new TP of Bt269 (up 19% from previous TP), based on DCF, implying 24.1xPE’22. Analyst meeting came out with positive...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year

Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227, based on DCF implying 24xPE’22. Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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