Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We reinitiate our coverage on ADVANC with a Neutral rating.</li><li>While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth outlook, which remains below the average of major regional operators.</li><li>In addition, the tactical outlook remains neutral.</li></ul>

We reinitiate our coverage on ADVANC with a Neutral rating.While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth outlook, which remains below the average of major regional operators.In addition, the tactical outlook remains neutral.

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE - Resuming Normal Growth Mode in 2025E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward, with the support levels at 1,158/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,180/1,184 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>In the medium term, the trend remains bearish in a zig-zag down pattern, aiming to find the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points. In the short term, after trading in a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, the index broke out downward on Friday, indicating a likely continued decline today to retest the previous low at 1,157.96 points or form a new low.</li><li>Negative factors include the impact of the earthquake on Thailand’s industrial sector and rising risks of a sharp economic contraction in the US. Recommendation: wait to buy when a new bullish technical signal emerges.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward, with the support levels at 1,158/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,180/1,184 points (10-day EMA).In the medium term, the trend remains bearish in a zig-zag down pattern, aiming to find the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points. In the short term, after trading in a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, the index broke out downward on Friday, indicating a likely continued decline today to retest the previous low at 1,157.96 points or form a new low.Negative factors include the impact of the earthquake on Thailand’s industrial sector and rising risks of a sharp economic contraction in the US. Recommendation: wait to buy when a new bullish technical signal emerges.

KTX Zoom - Market Flooded with Negative News (US Stagflation & Earthquake Impact on Thailand)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 28th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD0.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures, PTT E&amp;P, Airports of Thailand, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Bank, CP ALL.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 28th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD0.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures, PTT E&amp;P, Airports of Thailand, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Bank, CP ALL.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): CP AXTRA, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> made an offer to acquire all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> shares at THB65/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> did not tender their then 21% stake.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH)</a> are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The merger will result in an inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.</li>
</ul>


In 2021, Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) made an offer to acquire all Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) shares at THB65/share. Singtel (ST SP) did not tender their then 21% stake.
Now Gulf Energy Development (GULF) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH) are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).
The merger will result in an inclusion to the SET 50 Index in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, were considering taking Japfa private.</li>
<li>This was discussed in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/174028/%20https:/skr.ma/iKVsA" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer</a>. Then crickets. </li>
<li>The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. </li>
</ul>


Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets. 
The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. 


Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE - Resuming Normal Growth Mode in 2025E

While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Market Flooded with Negative News (US Stagflation & Earthquake Impact on Thailand)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward, with the support levels at 1,158/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,180/1,184 points (10...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): CP AXTRA, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO's

GULF and INTUCH are looking to merge with the merger ratio very close to current levels. Shareholders are unlikely to tender into the ADVANC and...

Brian Freitas

Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Scheme Doc dispatched. 15th April Scheme Meeting. Payment on or around the 30th May. With a fair value range of S$0.53 to S$0.56/share, the IFA...

David Blennerhassett

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