Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating, as the attractiveness of the valuation based on the fundamentals (with the share price implying 12% upside to the fair value) is offset by the relatively modest average EPS growth of a 7% CAGR during 2025-27E, which is at the lower end compared to regional peers. In addition, the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 12-month forward fair value has been revised to Bt314 (previously Bt317), reflecting adjustments to the macroeconomic variables in the beta estimation based on our new house view.</li><li>This adjustment immaterially impacted the required return, which remains almost unchanged at 4.0%.</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating, as the attractiveness of the valuation based on the fundamentals (with the share price implying 12% upside to the fair value) is offset by the relatively modest average EPS growth of a 7% CAGR during 2025-27E, which is at the lower end compared to regional peers. In addition, the tactical view is neutral.The 12-month forward fair value has been revised to Bt314 (previously Bt317), reflecting adjustments to the macroeconomic variables in the beta estimation based on our new house view.This adjustment immaterially impacted the required return, which remains almost unchanged at 4.0%.

Advanced Info Service - Continued Earnings Momentum 1Q25E

<ul><li>We reinitiate our coverage on ADVANC with a Neutral rating.</li><li>While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth outlook, which remains below the average of major regional operators.</li><li>In addition, the tactical outlook remains neutral.</li></ul>

We reinitiate our coverage on ADVANC with a Neutral rating.While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth outlook, which remains below the average of major regional operators.In addition, the tactical outlook remains neutral.

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE - Resuming Normal Growth Mode in 2025E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,120/1,110 points and the resistance at 1,135 points (10-day EMA)/1,136/1,146 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within the 960-1,200-point range, seeking a bottoming-out signal.</li><li>In the short term, there is potential for a continued rebound, with a target of 1,162 points, which could mark a shift in trend from the previous downtrend pattern (new lows followed by rebounds) to a base-building phase for a new upward cycle (possibly forming a double bottom or W-shape). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,120/1,110 points and the resistance at 1,135 points (10-day EMA)/1,136/1,146 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within the 960-1,200-point range, seeking a bottoming-out signal.In the short term, there is potential for a continued rebound, with a target of 1,162 points, which could mark a shift in trend from the previous downtrend pattern (new lows followed by rebounds) to a base-building phase for a new upward cycle (possibly forming a double bottom or W-shape). 

KTX Zoom - ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates to Support Growth: April 17, 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> made an offer to acquire all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> shares at THB65/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> did not tender their then 21% stake.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH)</a> are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The merger will result in an inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.</li>
</ul>


In 2021, Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) made an offer to acquire all Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) shares at THB65/share. Singtel (ST SP) did not tender their then 21% stake.
Now Gulf Energy Development (GULF) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH) are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).
The merger will result in an inclusion to the SET 50 Index in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.


<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance levels at 1,135 points (10-day EMA) and 1,146 points, and the support levels at 1,118 and 1,110 points.</li><li>The index is supported by positive news from the US announcing the removal of tariffs on IT products such as smartphones, hard disks, etc., with its trading partners.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within the range of 960-1,200 points as it seeks a bottoming-out signal. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance levels at 1,135 points (10-day EMA) and 1,146 points, and the support levels at 1,118 and 1,110 points.The index is supported by positive news from the US announcing the removal of tariffs on IT products such as smartphones, hard disks, etc., with its trading partners.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within the range of 960-1,200 points as it seeks a bottoming-out signal. 

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on China’s 1Q25 GDP Growth Along with Economic Data

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

Advanced Info Service - Continued Earnings Momentum 1Q25E

The 12-month forward fair value has been revised to Bt314 (previously Bt317), reflecting adjustments to the macroeconomic variables in the beta...

Krungthai XSpring

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE - Resuming Normal Growth Mode in 2025E

While the valuation appears attractive from a fundamental perspective, with 13% upside to its fair value, this is offset by its earnings growth...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates to Support Growth: April 17, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,120/1,110 points and the resistance at 1,135 points (10-day EMA)...

Krungthai XSpring

GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO's

GULF and INTUCH are looking to merge with the merger ratio very close to current levels. Shareholders are unlikely to tender into the ADVANC and...

Brian Freitas

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on China’s 1Q25 GDP Growth Along with Economic Data

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, with the resistance levels at 1,135 points (10-day EMA) and 1,146 points, and the support levels at...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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