Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on March 12, 2021, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its 4Q20/full year  results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 33% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – declining on a linked quarter basis, due largely to weaker volumes and margins.AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales;  and *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on March 12, 2021, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its 4Q20/full year  results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 33% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – declining on a linked quarter basis, due largely to weaker volumes and margins.AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales;  and *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well. 

AIA Group – 4Q Results Likely To Remain Very Challenging

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Event-Driven

The result of the guilty verdict was expected by the local media but what does this mean for the future of the Samsung Group? 5 key takeaways on what to expect and impact on the Samsung Group and its affiliates.

The result of the guilty verdict was expected by the local media but what does this mean for the future of the Samsung Group? 5 key takeaways on what to expect and impact on the Samsung Group and its affiliates. 

JY Lee & The Ides of March.....and What It Means for You

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

The inheritance tax due for the late KH Lee is set at W11.4 trillion.  The market is interested in how this $10 billion bill will be paid by the Lee family and ensconced a general take on how to pay for this without a big cash outlay

The inheritance tax due for the late KH Lee is set at W11.4 trillion.  The market is interested in how this $10 billion bill will be paid by the Lee family and ensconced a general take on how to pay for this without a big cash outlay

Samsung Inheritance Tax Set Is Good News for Samsung Dividends

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have.

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. 

South Korea

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

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Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS)

AIA Group – 4Q Results Likely To Remain Very Challenging

AIA GROUP: Pre-market on March 12th, AIA is to release 4Q20/full year results. AIA’s overall VONB is expected to decline 33% YOY- due largely to...

Thomas J. Monaco

JY Lee & The Ides of March.....and What It Means for You

The impact of the JY Lee jail sentencing and what it means for Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T and its affiliates down the line.

Ken S. Kim

Samsung Inheritance Tax Set Is Good News for Samsung Dividends

Samsung Electronics has to double dividends over next 5-10 years which again goes to prove that in Korea ride with the best interest of the family...

Ken S. Kim

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

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AIA Group – 4Q Results Likely To Remain Very Challenging

AIA GROUP: Pre-market on March 12th, AIA is to release 4Q20/full year results. AIA’s overall VONB is expected to decline 33% YOY- due largely to...

Thomas J. Monaco

JY Lee & The Ides of March.....and What It Means for You

The impact of the JY Lee jail sentencing and what it means for Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T and its affiliates down the line.

Ken S. Kim

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

Samsung Inheritance Tax Set Is Good News for Samsung Dividends

Samsung Electronics has to double dividends over next 5-10 years which again goes to prove that in Korea ride with the best interest of the family...

Ken S. Kim

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco