Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INSTITUTIONS were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Oct 18 to 24, with S$158 million of net institutional outflow, a similar pace to the preceding five sessions of S$144 million of net outflow.</li><li>Stocks that led the net institutional outflow were DBS, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Ascendas Reit, Genting Singapore, Seatrium, CapitaLand Investment, UOB, Sembcorp Industries, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and Singtel.</li><li>Sembcorp Industries On Oct 16, Sembcorp Industries’ subsidiary, Sembcorp Financial Services, priced S$350 million 3.65 per cent certified rate guaranteed notes due 2036 under its S$5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) Programme Series 001 Notes.</li></ul>

INSTITUTIONS were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Oct 18 to 24, with S$158 million of net institutional outflow, a similar pace to the preceding five sessions of S$144 million of net outflow.Stocks that led the net institutional outflow were DBS, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Ascendas Reit, Genting Singapore, Seatrium, CapitaLand Investment, UOB, Sembcorp Industries, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and Singtel.Sembcorp Industries On Oct 16, Sembcorp Industries’ subsidiary, Sembcorp Financial Services, priced S$350 million 3.65 per cent certified rate guaranteed notes due 2036 under its S$5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) Programme Series 001 Notes.

Sembcorp director participates in well-subscribed EMTN offering

<ul><li>Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Sep 6 to 13, with S$523 million of net institutional inflow, following the S$328 million in net institutional inflow for the preceding five sessions.</li><li>Eight of the stocks also led the net institutional inflow over the preceding five sessions, with SATS and Singapore Airlines the exceptions.</li></ul>

Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Sep 6 to 13, with S$523 million of net institutional inflow, following the S$328 million in net institutional inflow for the preceding five sessions.Eight of the stocks also led the net institutional inflow over the preceding five sessions, with SATS and Singapore Airlines the exceptions.

Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Keppel O&amp;M / SMM Combination and Keppel Rig Asset Restructure were announced today and the arithmetic is both tough and interesting. There's a little magic here.</li>
<li>KEP shareholders receive SMM shares worth ~1/3 of today's share price, and the rest is currently valued at well under Net Tangible Assets post-Restructuring/Transaction.</li>
<li>That suggests Keppel has upside, but one must think carefully about the exposures.</li>
</ul>


The Keppel O&amp;M / SMM Combination and Keppel Rig Asset Restructure were announced today and the arithmetic is both tough and interesting. There's a little magic here.
KEP shareholders receive SMM shares worth ~1/3 of today's share price, and the rest is currently valued at well under Net Tangible Assets post-Restructuring/Transaction.
That suggests Keppel has upside, but one must think carefully about the exposures.


The Keppel Restructuring - Forward Sum Of The Parts Makes KEP Look Cheap. And It Is... But...

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.</li>
<li>Post-Deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> will look more like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a>. More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. </li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. 

Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.
Post-Deal, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) will look more like Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP). More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

Singapore

Sembcorp Industries Ltd provides utilities and integrated services for industrial sites such as power, gas, steam, water, wastewater treatment and other on-site services. The Company's businesses also include marine & offshore engineering and urban development comprising industrial parks and business, commercial and residential spaces.

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Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Sembcorp director participates in well-subscribed EMTN offering

INSTITUTIONS were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Oct 18 to 24, with S$158 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue

Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

The Keppel Restructuring - Forward Sum Of The Parts Makes KEP Look Cheap. And It Is... But...

Keppel and SMM announced a complicated restructuring package which gets KEP out of the rig business and delivers shares in SMM to its own...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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