Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on November 11, 2020, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its usual limited set of results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 30% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – remaining flat on a linked quarter basis, however - due largely to weaker volumes and margins; *It’s More Than VONB: AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales. Equity markets where AIA operates had setbacks: Hong Kong (down 4%); Singapore (down 5%); and Thailand (down 8%). AIA’s EV also suffered an 8% impairment due to an investment portfolio challenges – which is a continued worry for us given the global economic challenges that all corporates and sovereigns are facing; and   *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on November 11, 2020, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its usual limited set of results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 30% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – remaining flat on a linked quarter basis, however - due largely to weaker volumes and margins; *It’s More Than VONB: AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales. Equity markets where AIA operates had setbacks: Hong Kong (down 4%); Singapore (down 5%); and Thailand (down 8%). AIA’s EV also suffered an 8% impairment due to an investment portfolio challenges – which is a continued worry for us given the global economic challenges that all corporates and sovereigns are facing; and   *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.

AIA Group – 3Q Results Will Remain Very Challenging

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Group officially announced that Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Kun-hee had passed away early today (October 25) after being hospitalized due to AMI for more than six years since May 2014.Now, let's take a look at potential immediate impacts on Samsung companies and the Lee family.<a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/10/121_298148.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the Korea Times obituary.</a>

Samsung Group officially announced that Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Kun-hee had passed away early today (October 25) after being hospitalized due to AMI for more than six years since May 2014.Now, let's take a look at potential immediate impacts on Samsung companies and the Lee family.Here is the link to the Korea Times obituary.

The Passing of Samsung Lee Kun-Hee: Checking Immediate Issues

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

APlus Asset Advisor / Equity Capital Markets

Established in 2007, APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. Aplus Asset Advisory is the Korean market leader in the independent corporate insurance agency (GA) business that compares and analyzes various products of insurance companies and provides optimal insurance and financial services to its customers. 
The IPO price range is from 10,500 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $26 million to $30 million. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 237 billion won to 278 billion won. NH Investment Securities is the lead underwriter of this IPO. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 5 November. 
Aplus Asset Advisor generated revenue of 269.4 billion won (up 16% YoY) and an operating profit of 20.9 billion won (up 24.9% YoY) in 2019. The company's operating margin averaged 7.1% from 2016 to 1H 2020. From 2016 to 2019, the company's sales increased at a CAGR of 9.3%.

Established in 2007, APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. Aplus Asset Advisory is the Korean market leader in the independent corporate insurance agency (GA) business that compares and analyzes various products of insurance companies and provides optimal insurance and financial services to its customers. 
The IPO price range is from 10,500 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $26 million to $30 million. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 237 billion won to 278 billion won. NH Investment Securities is the lead underwriter of this IPO. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 5 November. 
Aplus Asset Advisor generated revenue of 269.4 billion won (up 16% YoY) and an operating profit of 20.9 billion won (up 24.9% YoY) in 2019. The company's operating margin averaged 7.1% from 2016 to 1H 2020. From 2016 to 2019, the company's sales increased at a CAGR of 9.3%.

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); and *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. Auto combined ratio improved temporarily during the lockdown by 360 bp to 94.7%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China.

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); and *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. Auto combined ratio improved temporarily during the lockdown by 360 bp to 94.7%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China.

Ping An Insurance – Life Showing Signs Of Life

Samsung C&amp;T was the most net purchased stock in Korea by local institutions last week (August 10~14).<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/428/original/8.png?1597776741" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153428"></figure>Just in two trading days (August 12~13), local institutions had net purchased a total of ₩85bil.In contrast, they had net purchased only ₩21bil worth of Samsung Life shares during these two days.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/398/original/2.png?1597772937" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153398"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/399/original/1.png?1597773054" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153399"></figure>It appears that they are putting their money on C&amp;T instead of Life for a possible stake transfer involving Sammy shares.

Samsung C&amp;T was the most net purchased stock in Korea by local institutions last week (August 10~14).Just in two trading days (August 12~13), local institutions had net purchased a total of ₩85bil.In contrast, they had net purchased only ₩21bil worth of Samsung Life shares during these two days.It appears that they are putting their money on C&amp;T instead of Life for a possible stake transfer involving Sammy shares.

Why Are Local Institutions Buying Samsung C&T Instead of Life over Elec Stake Sale?

South Korea

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

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Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS)

AIA Group – 3Q Results Will Remain Very Challenging

AIA GROUP: Previewing 3Q Results, We Note VONB Challenges And Other Risks - Hong Kong Not Rebounding, Weak Equity Markets, and Further Investment...

Thomas J. Monaco

The Passing of Samsung Lee Kun-Hee: Checking Immediate Issues

This post checks the immediate issues resulting from the passing of Lee Kun-hee: 1. inheritance tax calculations, 2. immediate-term market...

Sanghyun Park

APlus Asset Advisor IPO Preview

APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. This is the Korean market leader in the...

Douglas Kim

Ping An Insurance – Life Showing Signs Of Life

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below...

Thomas J. Monaco

Why Are Local Institutions Buying Samsung C&T Instead of Life over Elec Stake Sale?

Samsung C&T was the most net purchased stock in Korea by local institutions last week (August 10~14).Just in two trading days (August 12~13),...

Sanghyun Park

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