Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.</li>
<li>
The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.</li>
<li>This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.

The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.
This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.


NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.</li>
<li>Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.</li>
<li>The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.</li>
</ul>


From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.


Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Equity Derivatives

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.
</li>
<li>On Monday Donald Trump posted that if China does not withdraw immediately its +34% tariffs increase, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of +50%, effective April 9th!
</li>
<li>Although the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> is more insulated than other indices from global market volatility, it is not completely immune and remains vulnerable to the impact of US’s tariff threats.</li>
</ul>


The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.

On Monday Donald Trump posted that if China does not withdraw immediately its +34% tariffs increase, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of +50%, effective April 9th!

Although the CSI 300 Index is more insulated than other indices from global market volatility, it is not completely immune and remains vulnerable to the impact of US’s tariff threats.


CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

<ul>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100</a> stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nasdaq-100-ndx-and-trump-s-tariffs-war-how-to-read-our-insights-models-during-a-bear-market-crash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As explained in this insight</a>, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. </li>
<li>What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. </li>
</ul>


Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&amp;P/ASX 200, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? 

As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. 
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. 


Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Equity Derivatives

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

<ul>
<li>This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.</li>
<li>Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.</li>
</ul>


This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.
The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

MRM Research
Quantitative Research

NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

The SS CSI 300 Index is showing resilience amid the global sell-off, down only -10% from its recent peak, but Donald Trump's threats of additional...

Nico Rosti

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

​The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

​The SS CSI 300 Index is showing resilience amid the global sell-off, down only -10% from its recent peak, but Donald Trump's threats of additional...

Nico Rosti

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

​Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...

The SS CSI 300 Index is showing resilience amid the global sell-off, down only -10% from its recent peak, but Donald Trump's threats of additional...

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...