Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>After a period of prolonged sell-off, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> last week found support around the 23263 level and bounced.</li>
<li>Below we introduce a new "quantitative chart" tool called "<strong>QUANTCHARTS</strong>": it displays in a compact format all the information you need to evaluate the probability of trend reversal.</li>
<li>As you will see the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> closed just below the 25% (Q1) probability target, so it has room to rise further in the coming weeks, the CC is supportive.</li>
</ul>


After a period of prolonged sell-off, the NIFTY Index last week found support around the 23263 level and bounced.
Below we introduce a new "quantitative chart" tool called "QUANTCHARTS": it displays in a compact format all the information you need to evaluate the probability of trend reversal.
As you will see the NIFTY Index closed just below the 25% (Q1) probability target, so it has room to rise further in the coming weeks, the CC is supportive.


Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>In a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-kospi-200-time-to-crash-or-time-to-bounce" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a>, on Oct 26th, we theorized 2 possible scenarios: a rally or a mini-crash for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a>, from the following week.</li>
<li>It looks like we are more in the mini-crash scenario (see chart below), at the moment, but the index is already very oversold according to our WEEKLY model.</li>
<li>Keep reading to find out where to buy based on our MRM WEEKLY models for the KOSPI 200.</li>
</ul>


In a previous insight, on Oct 26th, we theorized 2 possible scenarios: a rally or a mini-crash for the KOSPI 200 INDEX, from the following week.
It looks like we are more in the mini-crash scenario (see chart below), at the moment, but the index is already very oversold according to our WEEKLY model.
Keep reading to find out where to buy based on our MRM WEEKLY models for the KOSPI 200.


EQD | The "Landing Area" For The KOSPI 200 Is In Sight

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> lately has been correcting for longer than usual, we have to go back to early 2023 to see similar pullbacks.</li>
<li>We don't see any issue with the general trend structure so far, the index's been uptrending strongly since mid-June 2022, this pullback started in September is not worrying us.</li>
<li>We see an opportunity to buy at better prices, hoping to see the index restarting its main uptrend soon. This insight provides analysis to help you reenter the LONG trade.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index lately has been correcting for longer than usual, we have to go back to early 2023 to see similar pullbacks.
We don't see any issue with the general trend structure so far, the index's been uptrending strongly since mid-June 2022, this pullback started in September is not worrying us.
We see an opportunity to buy at better prices, hoping to see the index restarting its main uptrend soon. This insight provides analysis to help you reenter the LONG trade.


EQD | Dropping NIFTY 50 Could Find Support Very Soon

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been falling for the entire month of October, 4 weeks down in a row, then it started a mini-bounce in November. </li>
<li>Our seasonal model says the chances for the index to close November higher are quite dicey, 50/50 at best.</li>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> falls again in November, here below you will find the support levels to buy. If November closes down, the LONG odds for December become very good.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been falling for the entire month of October, 4 weeks down in a row, then it started a mini-bounce in November. 
Our seasonal model says the chances for the index to close November higher are quite dicey, 50/50 at best.
If the HSI falls again in November, here below you will find the support levels to buy. If November closes down, the LONG odds for December become very good.


EQD | If The Hang Seng Index Falls Further...

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>We have discussed before the fact that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> is currently in a trendless state, and affected by wild swings. </li>
<li>It appears that the index is now starting to try to build an uptrend from the August 2024's bottom (see WEEKLY chart below).</li>
<li>This insight is focused on finding out how far the current 2-weeks rally could go from here.</li>
</ul>


We have discussed before the fact that the Nikkei 225 is currently in a trendless state, and affected by wild swings. 
It appears that the index is now starting to try to build an uptrend from the August 2024's bottom (see WEEKLY chart below).
This insight is focused on finding out how far the current 2-weeks rally could go from here.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Tentatively Trending Up, Some Room to Go Higher (But Not Much...)