Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>
As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.</li>
<li>Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.
</li>
<li>In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.</li>
</ul>



As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.
Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.

In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.


HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been rallying more than 5% since its bottom 4 weeks ago. However the index has not returned to its all time high (26277).</li>
<li>Our models indicate that the index is starting to be overbought, but is not yet super-overbought, so the question is: will it continue higher? Or will it pullback soon?</li>
<li>This coming week will be crucial to sustain momentum and possibly accelerate, our models say that when this pattern is encountered the index can rally up to 7-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been rallying more than 5% since its bottom 4 weeks ago. However the index has not returned to its all time high (26277).
Our models indicate that the index is starting to be overbought, but is not yet super-overbought, so the question is: will it continue higher? Or will it pullback soon?
This coming week will be crucial to sustain momentum and possibly accelerate, our models say that when this pattern is encountered the index can rally up to 7-8 weeks.


EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Event-Driven

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 Index)</a> exploded higher in mid-September 2024, then went flat in a range (still there as we write). </li>
<li>Our models currently see uptrend and downtrend targets positioned at an equal distance from the last WEEKLY CLose on December 13th.</li>
<li>In short this means that the index is "perfectly neutral" at the moment, a rare scenario that requires straddle and strangle-like strategies to be able to profit.</li>
</ul>


The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 Index) exploded higher in mid-September 2024, then went flat in a range (still there as we write). 
Our models currently see uptrend and downtrend targets positioned at an equal distance from the last WEEKLY CLose on December 13th.
In short this means that the index is "perfectly neutral" at the moment, a rare scenario that requires straddle and strangle-like strategies to be able to profit.


EQD | CSI 300 Stuck in Neutral: Equal Chances to Rally or Drop

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)</a> selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. </li>
<li>The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.
</li>
<li>High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.
</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. 
The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.

High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.



EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1)</a> has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.</li>
<li>The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).</li>
<li>Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.</li>
</ul>



Crude Oil (CL1) has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.
The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).
Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.


EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

MRM Research
Quantitative Research

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

The NIFTY 50 this week broke through the support level at 24407 (50% probability of reversal) and got closer to the 23718 level (75% probability of...

Nico Rosti

EQD | CSI 300 Stuck in Neutral: Equal Chances to Rally or Drop

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is currently right in the middle of a support and resistance range identified by our models. We present the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...

Nico Rosti

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

​Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

The NIFTY 50 this week broke through the support level at 24407 (50% probability of reversal) and got closer to the 23718 level (75% probability of...

Nico Rosti

EQD | CSI 300 Stuck in Neutral: Equal Chances to Rally or Drop

​The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is currently right in the middle of a support and resistance range identified by our models. We present the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

​Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

​Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...

Nico Rosti

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is currently right in the middle of a support and resistance range identified by our models. We present the...

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...