European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

Ferrovial SE is a global operator of sustainable infrastructure. The Company specializes in construction, promotion, investment, and operation of toll roads, airports, electrical transmission networks, water treatment plants, and other infrastructures. Ferrovial serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Nasdaq-100 inclusion confirmed, effective Dec 22, moving the thesis from probability to outcome and validating Ferrovial’s U.S.-centric infrastructure positioning.</li>
<li>Index inclusion should drive about $315m of passive inflows, supporting near-term demand and delivering longer-lasting benefits through improved liquidity, spreads, and U.S. investor coverage.</li>
<li>Beyond the index event, value creation remains tied to U.S. managed lanes and the JFK New Terminal One, underpinning durable EBITDA growth through 2027.</li>
</ul>


Nasdaq-100 inclusion confirmed, effective Dec 22, moving the thesis from probability to outcome and validating Ferrovial’s U.S.-centric infrastructure positioning.
Index inclusion should drive about $315m of passive inflows, supporting near-term demand and delivering longer-lasting benefits through improved liquidity, spreads, and U.S. investor coverage.
Beyond the index event, value creation remains tied to U.S. managed lanes and the JFK New Terminal One, underpinning durable EBITDA growth through 2027.


Ferrovial: Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Confirmed – From Probability to Outcome

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Medline Industries is a medical supply company, manufacturer and distributor.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.</li>
<li>Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.</li>
</ul>



Medline (MDLN US) goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.
Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.


Medline (MDLN US): Global & US Index Inclusion; Overestimated Valuation?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$2.9bn and a turnover of ~7.5% for December 2025.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$2.9bn and a turnover of ~7.5% for December 2025.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

Planet Labs PBC operates as a public Earth imaging company. The Company provides daily satellite data that helps businesses, governments, researchers, and journalists understand the physical world and take action. Planet Labs designs and manufactures triple-cubsat miniature satellites called Doves that are then delivered into orbit as secondary payloads on other rocket launch missions.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigbear-ai-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36863:1" rel="noopener">BigBear.ai Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/next-vision-stabilized-systems-ltd-nextvision" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44223:1" rel="noopener">NextVision Stabilized Systems</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ondas-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33321:1" rel="noopener">Ondas Holdings Inc</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/planet-labs-pbc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35253:1" rel="noopener">Planet Labs</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>The 4 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$846m.</li>
<li>The adds have all run up over the last year and the passive buying could give the stocks another leg up in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



BigBear.ai Holdings, NextVision Stabilized Systems, Ondas Holdings Inc and Planet Labs will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 December.
The 4 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$846m.
The adds have all run up over the last year and the passive buying could give the stocks another leg up in the short-term.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade

US/EU Index Events
Index Rebalance and Events

Ferrovial: Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Confirmed – From Probability to Outcome

Ferrovial’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion is confirmed for Dec 22, validating its U.S.-centric strategy and likely triggering ~$315m passive inflows, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Medline (MDLN US): Global & US Index Inclusion; Overestimated Valuation?

Medline goes public on Nasdaq with an estimated $40bn market cap - below consensus expectations - and projected US and Global index inclusions in...

Dimitris Ioannidis

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

There are no ADDs or DELETEs to the MV US Semiconductor 25 Index for December 2025 but there is US$6bn to trade, which adds flow to an otherwise...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in Dec but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade

There are 4 adds for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$846m. The adds have run up a lot...

Brian Freitas