Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Oil slips below 60$. New 2-year KD issuance in Kuwait.                                                          </li><li>CPI lower in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.</li><li>Demand for SAR funding to remain sustained in 2026.</li></ul><div style="list-style-type: none;" aria-label="Post UFI"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><div style="list-style-type: none;"><a href="https://substack.com/@deniscollot" target="_blank" aria-label="View Denis Collot's profile" rel="noopener"></a></div></div></div></div></div></div>

Oil slips below 60$. New 2-year KD issuance in Kuwait.                                                          CPI lower in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.Demand for SAR funding to remain sustained in 2026.

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp-0103ceb3-3087-43a7-8e88-cf54392e4429" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41542:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK CN)</a>, which was up +150%, closely followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaris-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40176:1" rel="noopener">Solaris Resources (SLS CN)</a>, which gained 139% for the year. </li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.</li>
</ul>


The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.
Our best performer was Arras Minerals (ARK CN), which was up +150%, closely followed by Solaris Resources (SLS CN), which gained 139% for the year. 
Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.</li>
<li>The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.</li>
<li>Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.</li>
</ul>


EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.


Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$356mn in Nov-25, up 14% YoY but down 8% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Nov-25 are higher than the last 12-month average of US$337mn.</li><li>This takes 5MFY26 IT exports to US$1.8bn, up 19% YoY.</li><li>Export proceeds per day were recorded at US$17.8mn in Nov-25 vs. US$16.8mn in Oct-25.</li></ul>

Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$356mn in Nov-25, up 14% YoY but down 8% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Nov-25 are higher than the last 12-month average of US$337mn.This takes 5MFY26 IT exports to US$1.8bn, up 19% YoY.Export proceeds per day were recorded at US$17.8mn in Nov-25 vs. US$16.8mn in Oct-25.

Pakistan Technology - IT Exports In Nov-25 Up By 14% YoY To Record US$356mn; 5MFY26 Exports Up By 19% YoY

Saudi Arabia
Insights on Saudi Arabia

Middle East FX (December 19th 2025)

Oil slips below 60$. New 2-year KD issuance in Kuwait. CPI lower in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Demand for SAR funding to remain sustained in 2026.

MENA Market Lab

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

Pakistan Technology - IT Exports In Nov-25 Up By 14% YoY To Record US$356mn; 5MFY26 Exports Up By 19% YoY

Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$356mn in Nov-25, up 14% YoY but down 8% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Nov-25 are higher than the...

Topline Securities

Middle East FX (December 19th 2025)

Oil slips below 60$. New 2-year KD issuance in Kuwait. CPI lower in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Demand for SAR funding to remain sustained in 2026.

MENA Market Lab

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

​The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

Pakistan Technology - IT Exports In Nov-25 Up By 14% YoY To Record US$356mn; 5MFY26 Exports Up By 19% YoY

Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$356mn in Nov-25, up 14% YoY but down 8% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Nov-25 are higher than the...

Topline Securities

The 2025 "5 High Conviction Ideas" vintage had positive returns, with Arras Minerals and Solaris Resources leading the way. The 2026 list is more...