Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.</li>
<li>One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year</li>
<li>We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.</li>
</ul>


President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.


Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>Global markets were rattled by US reciprocal tariffs, which resulted to a minimum of 10.0% import tariffs on over 180 countries.</li><li>China and a few other countries initiated counter-tariff responses to drive the world economy into another trade war.</li><li>The consequence of the implied uncertainty cascaded into material demand concerns and weakened the outlook for commodities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global markets were rattled by US reciprocal tariffs, which resulted to a minimum of 10.0% import tariffs on over 180 countries.China and a few other countries initiated counter-tariff responses to drive the world economy into another trade war.The consequence of the implied uncertainty cascaded into material demand concerns and weakened the outlook for commodities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research - Global risk-off sentiments stoke renewed FX demand and Naira pressures

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last week, the NGX closed lower, with the ASI losing 0.14% WoW, while the MEP lost 0.03%, outperforming by 11bps.</li><li>Year-to-date, the MEP has gained 3.11%, outpacing the ASI’s 2.51% return by 60bps.</li><li>The MEP’s outperformance was largely attributed to the absence of FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.64% WoW) and UCAP (-7.88% WoW), alongside an underweight position in FCMB (-6.70% WoW).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week, the NGX closed lower, with the ASI losing 0.14% WoW, while the MEP lost 0.03%, outperforming by 11bps.Year-to-date, the MEP has gained 3.11%, outpacing the ASI’s 2.51% return by 60bps.The MEP’s outperformance was largely attributed to the absence of FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.64% WoW) and UCAP (-7.88% WoW), alongside an underweight position in FCMB (-6.70% WoW).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 07 March 2025

Nigeria
Insights on Nigeria

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

CardinalStone Research - Global risk-off sentiments stoke renewed FX demand and Naira pressures

Global markets were rattled by US reciprocal tariffs, which resulted to a minimum of 10.0% import tariffs on over 180 countries.

CardinalStone

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 07 March 2025

Last week, the NGX closed lower, with the ASI losing 0.14% WoW, while the MEP lost 0.03%, outperforming by 11bps. Year-to-date, the MEP has gained...

CardinalStone

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

​Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

​President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

CardinalStone Research - Global risk-off sentiments stoke renewed FX demand and Naira pressures

Global markets were rattled by US reciprocal tariffs, which resulted to a minimum of 10.0% import tariffs on over 180 countries.

CardinalStone

CardinalStone Research - Model Equity Portfolio - 07 March 2025

Last week, the NGX closed lower, with the ASI losing 0.14% WoW, while the MEP lost 0.03%, outperforming by 11bps. Year-to-date, the MEP has gained...

CardinalStone

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...