Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>Nigeria witnessed a halt in headline inflation moderation in March 2025, with a YoY reading of 24.2% ahead of the 23.2% in February and a consensus expectation of 22.3%.</li><li>MoM inflation also surged to 3.9% compared to 2.0% in the preceding month, with energy-related sub-indices seeing significant pressures (Housing Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (HWEGF): 12.2% MoM; Energy: 9.2% MoM).</li><li>There were also notable pressures on Clothing &amp; Footwear (8.1% MoM) and Furnishings, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance (8.1% MoM).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nigeria witnessed a halt in headline inflation moderation in March 2025, with a YoY reading of 24.2% ahead of the 23.2% in February and a consensus expectation of 22.3%.MoM inflation also surged to 3.9% compared to 2.0% in the preceding month, with energy-related sub-indices seeing significant pressures (Housing Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (HWEGF): 12.2% MoM; Energy: 9.2% MoM).There were also notable pressures on Clothing &amp; Footwear (8.1% MoM) and Furnishings, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance (8.1% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research - Inflationary risks may balance out in April

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.</li>
<li>Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.</li>
<li>However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.</li>
</ul>


No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.


Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework