Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.</li>
<li>Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.</li>
<li>However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.</li>
</ul>


No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.


Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.</li>
<li>One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year</li>
<li>We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.</li>
</ul>


President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.


Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

Monaco
Insights on Monaco

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War

No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war. A game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a...

Cam Hui

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War

No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war. A game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a...

Cam Hui

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

​Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

​President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...