Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Autos / In Depth: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes ended up also-rans in China</li><li>Retail /: Nongfu Spring founder attacks livestream sales model and low-price platforms</li><li>Energy Insider /: Russian gas to power Shanghai by year-end, Beijing reins in solar industry</li></ul>

Autos / In Depth: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes ended up also-rans in ChinaRetail /: Nongfu Spring founder attacks livestream sales model and low-price platformsEnergy Insider /: Russian gas to power Shanghai by year-end, Beijing reins in solar industry

CX Daily: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes Ended Up Also-Rans in China 

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>The Indian market saw record foreign selling during October and that selling has continued this month.</li>
<li>Valuations are not only stretched, they are at historically high levels with mediocre earnings growth projected for next year.</li>
<li>Market breadth is narrowing and the market has declining momentum.  Near-term moving averages will act as resistance levels.</li>
</ul>


The Indian market saw record foreign selling during October and that selling has continued this month.
Valuations are not only stretched, they are at historically high levels with mediocre earnings growth projected for next year.
Market breadth is narrowing and the market has declining momentum.  Near-term moving averages will act as resistance levels.


<ul><li>Loans / In Depth: Pandemic-era helping hand comes back to haunt China’s banks</li><li>G20 /: Larger stimulus package would do more to stabilize China’s growth, experts say</li><li>Corruption /Exclusive: Disgraced exec at Sino-French insurer likely tied to corrupt ICBC officials</li></ul>

Loans / In Depth: Pandemic-era helping hand comes back to haunt China’s banksG20 /: Larger stimulus package would do more to stabilize China’s growth, experts sayCorruption /Exclusive: Disgraced exec at Sino-French insurer likely tied to corrupt ICBC officials

CX Daily: Pandemic-Era Helping Hand Comes Back to Haunt China’s Banks 

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Based on the Oct 2024 holding analysis, the FTSE benchmarked fund, Vanguard (the fund), has sold approx. US$66mn worth of stocks in Oct 2024, taking total selling to US$149mn out of total portfolio of US$171mn using current market price. Our sales team believes that approx. US$11mn worth of stocks are sold in first 2 weeks of Nov 2024, taking total selling to US$160mn.Resultantly, we believe, stocks worth of US$10-12mn are left with fund now.</li><li>Background: On Jul 03, 2024, FTSE Russell announced reclassification of Pakistan from Secondary Emerging to Frontier Market status with effect from Sep 23, 2024 as Pakistan failed to meet the criteria of stock count. FTSE benchmarked fund held ~US$170mn of position in Pakistan stocks as of Apr/May 2024.</li><li>Top sold positions in Oct 2024: Fund sold stocks worth of US$66mn in Oct 2024 and was fully sold in 10 out of 14 stocks by Oct 2024. HUBC and PPL were the biggest positions sold in month of Oct 2024 valuing US$9.2mn each, followed by UBL and LUCK valuing at US$7.7mn and US$5.0mn, respectively.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Based on the Oct 2024 holding analysis, the FTSE benchmarked fund, Vanguard (the fund), has sold approx. US$66mn worth of stocks in Oct 2024, taking total selling to US$149mn out of total portfolio of US$171mn using current market price. Our sales team believes that approx. US$11mn worth of stocks are sold in first 2 weeks of Nov 2024, taking total selling to US$160mn.Resultantly, we believe, stocks worth of US$10-12mn are left with fund now.Background: On Jul 03, 2024, FTSE Russell announced reclassification of Pakistan from Secondary Emerging to Frontier Market status with effect from Sep 23, 2024 as Pakistan failed to meet the criteria of stock count. FTSE benchmarked fund held ~US$170mn of position in Pakistan stocks as of Apr/May 2024.Top sold positions in Oct 2024: Fund sold stocks worth of US$66mn in Oct 2024 and was fully sold in 10 out of 14 stocks by Oct 2024. HUBC and PPL were the biggest positions sold in month of Oct 2024 valuing US$9.2mn each, followed by UBL and LUCK valuing at US$7.7mn and US$5.0mn, respectively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FTSE Rebalancing Outflow; 10 out of 14 stocks sold out by Oct; Sold over US$65mn in Oct alone