Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.</li>
<li>China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.</li>
<li>Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.</li>
</ul>


China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.
China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.
Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.


[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.</li>
<li>61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.
61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.
Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

<ul>
<li>Bullish outlook: Strong fundamentals—industrial demand, a global silver deficit, and rising PV sector needs—support a bullish outlook, with historical trends favoring silver gains in low-rate environments.</li>
<li>Event-Driven volatility: Silver prices face potential volatility from the U.S. election, FOMC rate cut, and China’s stimulus announcement, all anticipated to impact safe-haven asset demand and prices.</li>
<li>Silver prices have historically shown mixed responses to U.S. elections, with Republican wins typically leading to slight price gains, while Democratic transitions often result in minor declines.</li>
</ul>


Bullish outlook: Strong fundamentals—industrial demand, a global silver deficit, and rising PV sector needs—support a bullish outlook, with historical trends favoring silver gains in low-rate environments.
Event-Driven volatility: Silver prices face potential volatility from the U.S. election, FOMC rate cut, and China’s stimulus announcement, all anticipated to impact safe-haven asset demand and prices.
Silver prices have historically shown mixed responses to U.S. elections, with Republican wins typically leading to slight price gains, while Democratic transitions often result in minor declines.


Hedging Bullish Silver Risk During Volatile Week

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures rose to USD 102.14/ton, peaking at USD 104.60, but ended below key levels, reflecting a restrained rally amid low volatility.</li>
<li>China’s expected fiscal stimulus announcement on November 8 could significantly impact iron ore prices, especially as inventories increase, posing demand risks.</li>
<li>Bullish sentiment in iron ore options is evident, with a rising demand for calls at the USD 105 strike, signaling bullish positioning ahead of the parliament meeting.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures rose to USD 102.14/ton, peaking at USD 104.60, but ended below key levels, reflecting a restrained rally amid low volatility.
China’s expected fiscal stimulus announcement on November 8 could significantly impact iron ore prices, especially as inventories increase, posing demand risks.
Bullish sentiment in iron ore options is evident, with a rising demand for calls at the USD 105 strike, signaling bullish positioning ahead of the parliament meeting.


IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move

<ul>
<li>Iron Ore prices closed at USD 101.55/ton, largely unchanged after a mid-week slump, buoyed by minor stimulus-driven recovery.</li>
<li>China’s industrial profits dropped 3.5% YoY, with steel mills posting cumulative losses of 34 trillion Yuan from January to September.</li>
<li>Iron Ore portside inventories remain high, declining only slightly by 400k tons, as demand struggles to meet import volumes.</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore prices closed at USD 101.55/ton, largely unchanged after a mid-week slump, buoyed by minor stimulus-driven recovery.
China’s industrial profits dropped 3.5% YoY, with steel mills posting cumulative losses of 34 trillion Yuan from January to September.
Iron Ore portside inventories remain high, declining only slightly by 400k tons, as demand struggles to meet import volumes.


[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/43] Stimulus Provides Small Boost to IO; Fundamental Outlook Downbeat

Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.

Pranay Yadav
Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms
• Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

China’s upcoming fiscal package could introduce 10 trillion yuan in support, focusing on real estate and local government debt. October PMI shows...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

Hedging Bullish Silver Risk During Volatile Week

An eventful week for silver with market volatility from the US election, FOMC meeting, and China’s parliament meeting. A bullish long-term outlook...

Mint Finance

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move

IO rose modestly last week, bolstered by China's PMI recovery, though key resistance levels held firm. Low HV hints at a potential breakout, with...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/43] Stimulus Provides Small Boost to IO; Fundamental Outlook Downbeat

Iron ore prices ticked up on China’s stimulus, but high inventories and weak demand cap recovery. Analysts await potential fiscal boosts from the...

Mint Finance