Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul>
<li>A slowdown in China's property and manufacturing sectors along with high refining ouput has led to a significant increase in copper inventories, contributing to short-term demand concerns.</li>
<li>Major copper miners face production challenges, risking future supply deficits amid growing demand from the photovoltaic and EV industries.</li>
<li>Asset managers have reduced their long positions in copper due to near-term market conditions, reflecting a cautious outlook on immediate price movements.</li>
</ul>


A slowdown in China's property and manufacturing sectors along with high refining ouput has led to a significant increase in copper inventories, contributing to short-term demand concerns.
Major copper miners face production challenges, risking future supply deficits amid growing demand from the photovoltaic and EV industries.
Asset managers have reduced their long positions in copper due to near-term market conditions, reflecting a cautious outlook on immediate price movements.


Navigating Copper's Contradictions: Short-Term Demand Woes Versus Long-Term Supply Gaps

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul>
<li>Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.</li>
<li>Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.</li>
<li>Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.</li>
</ul>


Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.
Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.
Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.


Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.</li>
<li>Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.</li>
<li>Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.</li>
</ul>


Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.
Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.
Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.


Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

<ul>
<li>Continued strong gold demand from central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, drives gold prices up despite high interest rates, challenging conventional expectations.</li>
<li>Weakening economic indicators in the US, like falling job openings and PMI, increase likelihood of rate cuts, potentially elevating the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) even in a lower interest rate environment.</li>
<li>Anticipating a recession in late 2024, the paper describes a strategic long stance on GSR, leveraging price divergence in gold and silver amid economic slowdown. </li>
</ul>


Continued strong gold demand from central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, drives gold prices up despite high interest rates, challenging conventional expectations.
Weakening economic indicators in the US, like falling job openings and PMI, increase likelihood of rate cuts, potentially elevating the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) even in a lower interest rate environment.
Anticipating a recession in late 2024, the paper describes a strategic long stance on GSR, leveraging price divergence in gold and silver amid economic slowdown. 


Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

<ul>
<li>SHFE silver premium over COMEX silver has escalated to 7%, exacerbated by falling SHFE silver inventories, indicating a deepening shortage in China.</li>
<li>Surging demand from China's rapidly growing solar industry and renewable data centers is deepening the global silver deficit, now projected to continue at record levels for a fourth year.</li>
<li>The strong bullish outlook for silver suggests that the bullishness in silver prices is likely to continue in the near-term.</li>
</ul>


SHFE silver premium over COMEX silver has escalated to 7%, exacerbated by falling SHFE silver inventories, indicating a deepening shortage in China.
Surging demand from China's rapidly growing solar industry and renewable data centers is deepening the global silver deficit, now projected to continue at record levels for a fourth year.
The strong bullish outlook for silver suggests that the bullishness in silver prices is likely to continue in the near-term.


Precious Perspectives Part 1: China’s Silver Scarcity Pushes Silver Higher

Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.

Pranay Yadav
Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order
• Mint Finance

Navigating Copper's Contradictions: Short-Term Demand Woes Versus Long-Term Supply Gaps

China's economic slowdown and high copper inventories raise short-term demand concerns, while production challenges for major miners could lead to...

Mint Finance

Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Momentum trading in agricultural commodities uses seasonal trends and fundamentals to optimize strategies for corn, wheat, and soybean futures....

Mint Finance

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.

Mint Finance

Precious Perspectives Part 1: China’s Silver Scarcity Pushes Silver Higher

SHFE silver premium is surging indicating a worsening silver supply shortage in China. Deepening global silver deficit allows silver to gain...

Mint Finance

Navigating Copper's Contradictions: Short-Term Demand Woes Versus Long-Term Supply Gaps

​China's economic slowdown and high copper inventories raise short-term demand concerns, while production challenges for major miners could lead to...

Mint Finance

Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Momentum trading in agricultural commodities uses seasonal trends and fundamentals to optimize strategies for corn, wheat, and soybean futures....

Mint Finance

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

​Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

​Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.

Mint Finance

Precious Perspectives Part 1: China’s Silver Scarcity Pushes Silver Higher

​SHFE silver premium is surging indicating a worsening silver supply shortage in China. Deepening global silver deficit allows silver to gain...

Mint Finance

China's economic slowdown and high copper inventories raise short-term demand concerns, while production challenges for major miners could lead to...

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.

SHFE silver premium is surging indicating a worsening silver supply shortage in China. Deepening global silver deficit allows silver to gain...