Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. </li>
<li>Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.</li>
<li>Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.</li>
</ul>


Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.</li>
<li>Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.</li>
<li>Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

<ul>
<li>China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.</li>
<li>China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.</li>
<li>Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.</li>
</ul>


China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.
China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.
Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.


[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.</li>
<li>61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.
61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.
Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

<ul>
<li>Bullish outlook: Strong fundamentals—industrial demand, a global silver deficit, and rising PV sector needs—support a bullish outlook, with historical trends favoring silver gains in low-rate environments.</li>
<li>Event-Driven volatility: Silver prices face potential volatility from the U.S. election, FOMC rate cut, and China’s stimulus announcement, all anticipated to impact safe-haven asset demand and prices.</li>
<li>Silver prices have historically shown mixed responses to U.S. elections, with Republican wins typically leading to slight price gains, while Democratic transitions often result in minor declines.</li>
</ul>


Bullish outlook: Strong fundamentals—industrial demand, a global silver deficit, and rising PV sector needs—support a bullish outlook, with historical trends favoring silver gains in low-rate environments.
Event-Driven volatility: Silver prices face potential volatility from the U.S. election, FOMC rate cut, and China’s stimulus announcement, all anticipated to impact safe-haven asset demand and prices.
Silver prices have historically shown mixed responses to U.S. elections, with Republican wins typically leading to slight price gains, while Democratic transitions often result in minor declines.


Hedging Bullish Silver Risk During Volatile Week

Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.

Pranay Yadav
Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms
• Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

Iron ore futures faced mixed signals last week, with SGX contracts declining amid weaker demand drivers despite seasonal tailwinds, while DCE...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

China’s upcoming fiscal package could introduce 10 trillion yuan in support, focusing on real estate and local government debt. October PMI shows...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

Hedging Bullish Silver Risk During Volatile Week

An eventful week for silver with market volatility from the US election, FOMC meeting, and China’s parliament meeting. A bullish long-term outlook...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

​SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

Iron ore futures faced mixed signals last week, with SGX contracts declining amid weaker demand drivers despite seasonal tailwinds, while DCE...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

China’s upcoming fiscal package could introduce 10 trillion yuan in support, focusing on real estate and local government debt. October PMI shows...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

Hedging Bullish Silver Risk During Volatile Week

An eventful week for silver with market volatility from the US election, FOMC meeting, and China’s parliament meeting. A bullish long-term outlook...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.