Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Following the iron ore rally at the start of the month, prices have corrected sharply lower owing to downbeat economic data and an inventory buildup.</li>
<li>Option activity over the past week was notably skewed towards put options suggesting a negative sentiment. Weekly options volume was sharply lower WoW.</li>
<li>Recent bearish sentiment has been accompanied by a decline in IV. Outcome from the plenary meeting is likely to reignite volatility in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


Following the iron ore rally at the start of the month, prices have corrected sharply lower owing to downbeat economic data and an inventory buildup.
Option activity over the past week was notably skewed towards put options suggesting a negative sentiment. Weekly options volume was sharply lower WoW.
Recent bearish sentiment has been accompanied by a decline in IV. Outcome from the plenary meeting is likely to reignite volatility in the coming weeks.


[Iron Options Weekly 2024/28] Supply/Demand Outlook for Iron Ore Outweighs Stimulus Hopes

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin's 11% drop was influenced by the German government's BTC liquidations, large long position liquidations, and the start of Mt. Gox repayments, increasing market supply.</li>
<li>Bitcoin's downturn is countered by significant ETF inflows, indicating investor optimism. Concurrently, the fear and greed index's low levels point to potential buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Ethereum is poised for growth with upcoming ETF approvals likely to drive substantial spot buying, positioning ETH for relative outperformance against Bitcoin.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin's 11% drop was influenced by the German government's BTC liquidations, large long position liquidations, and the start of Mt. Gox repayments, increasing market supply.
Bitcoin's downturn is countered by significant ETF inflows, indicating investor optimism. Concurrently, the fear and greed index's low levels point to potential buying opportunities.
Ethereum is poised for growth with upcoming ETF approvals likely to drive substantial spot buying, positioning ETH for relative outperformance against Bitcoin.


BTC Is Down >10%; Is This a Buy-The-Dip Moment?

<ul>
<li>Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.</li>
<li>China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. </li>
<li>The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.
China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. 
The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.


Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

<ul>
<li>Singapore's REITs, representing 12% of the equity market, face pressures from rising interest rates and economic downturns, which impact profitability and market performance.</li>
<li>The data center REIT sector is propelled by increasing AI applications, data sovereignty laws, and the growth of cloud services, positioning it for significant expansion.</li>
<li>Digital Core REIT benefits from its presence in key tech hubs and high-performance computing offerings, positioning them to outperform in a tight data center market.</li>
</ul>


Singapore's REITs, representing 12% of the equity market, face pressures from rising interest rates and economic downturns, which impact profitability and market performance.
The data center REIT sector is propelled by increasing AI applications, data sovereignty laws, and the growth of cloud services, positioning it for significant expansion.
Digital Core REIT benefits from its presence in key tech hubs and high-performance computing offerings, positioning them to outperform in a tight data center market.


Gen AI Unleashes Hyper Demand for Data Centers

<ul>
<li>Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.</li>
<li>Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.</li>
</ul>


Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.
The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.
Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.


Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.