Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in EM FX as US Yields Retreat from the Peak

Accelerating Global Recovery Boosts Asian Exports, Inflation Risks Contained

A Look on Some Victims of Rmb Appreciation in FY20: How Will They Fare in FY21 if Rmb Stays Weak?

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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Geo-political risks up: The key takeaway from last week’s summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide was that the internal Japanese debate on how far to go in embracing the harder American line on China was resolved in favour of the US and against China. Chinese efforts to deter Japan from doing so signally failed. With the US and Japan strengthening their alliance to contain China, this will spur China to increase its pressure on Taiwan and penalize Japan.</li>
<li>
COVID infections are rising in several parts of Asia: India, Thailand and Malaysia among others are experiencing more waves of infection, with an added worry that new and more potent variants are emerging. Not only with the economic recovery be set back but there could be higher political risks as well as a result.</li>
<li>
A two-tier region is emerging, however, as countries that dealt more successfully with the pandemic open up. Hong Kong and Singapore are pushing ahead with travel bubbles, for instance.</li>
<li>
Worries about inflation are growing: We believe that the rise in inflation will be contained. The real imbalances to fear are overheated asset markets and, later, growing external imbalances as a rapidly growing US economy sucks in imports causing its current account deficit to widen. As a result, while the US Treasury avoided using “currency manipulation” as a stick to beat Asian economies, such patience may not last.</li>
</ul>



Geo-political risks up: The key takeaway from last week’s summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide was that the internal Japanese debate on how far to go in embracing the harder American line on China was resolved in favour of the US and against China. Chinese efforts to deter Japan from doing so signally failed. With the US and Japan strengthening their alliance to contain China, this will spur China to increase its pressure on Taiwan and penalize Japan.

COVID infections are rising in several parts of Asia: India, Thailand and Malaysia among others are experiencing more waves of infection, with an added worry that new and more potent variants are emerging. Not only with the economic recovery be set back but there could be higher political risks as well as a result.

A two-tier region is emerging, however, as countries that dealt more successfully with the pandemic open up. Hong Kong and Singapore are pushing ahead with travel bubbles, for instance.

Worries about inflation are growing: We believe that the rise in inflation will be contained. The real imbalances to fear are overheated asset markets and, later, growing external imbalances as a rapidly growing US economy sucks in imports causing its current account deficit to widen. As a result, while the US Treasury avoided using “currency manipulation” as a stick to beat Asian economies, such patience may not last.


Worsening Risk Parameters for Asia-Pacific Region