Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Oil Prices Are Poised For A Correction But Supply Remains The Wildcard

Oil Price Surge and Macro: Are We Near A Turning Point?

Weekly Oil Views: Lingering OPEC+ Deadlock Brings Bearish Tail Risks in View

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Eyes Slow and Modest Easing of Output Cuts

Weekly Oil Views: A Conservative OPEC+ May Sustain Prices at Current Highs

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United arab emirates Oil, gas and consumable fuels / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>
Demand is robust, with imports from China and India improving steadily in recent months. The vaccination drive should provide a tailwind to import demand as growth recovers.</li>
<li>
But supply is sputtering, held back by capital discipline and mounting hedging losses that have afflicted US shale producers. With the US, which accounts for a tenth of global supplies, relegated to the sidelines, this has granted OPEC free rein to dictate oil prices in 2H21.</li>
<li>
Yet the recent rift in OPEC does the cartel no favours. To be sure, it is precisely because oil prices are elevated, that cartel members are bickering over supply curbs. Oil prices are in a sweet spot and should hover between USD70-USD80 in 2H21, as cartel members are keen to keep prices elevated to balance budgets at home, but not so high as to spur a fresh push into renewables.</li>
<li>
There are 3 implications for Asia. Dearer oil is a drag on economic activity, and resource-scarce Singapore stands to lose out the most. Rising oil prices risk fanning inflationary pressures further, which is particularly salient in India ahead of June’s CPI print. At a time of economic normalisation, elevated oil prices will feed into a ballooning import bill and exacerbates the external imbalances in India, Indonesia and the Philippines</li>
</ul>



Demand is robust, with imports from China and India improving steadily in recent months. The vaccination drive should provide a tailwind to import demand as growth recovers.

But supply is sputtering, held back by capital discipline and mounting hedging losses that have afflicted US shale producers. With the US, which accounts for a tenth of global supplies, relegated to the sidelines, this has granted OPEC free rein to dictate oil prices in 2H21.

Yet the recent rift in OPEC does the cartel no favours. To be sure, it is precisely because oil prices are elevated, that cartel members are bickering over supply curbs. Oil prices are in a sweet spot and should hover between USD70-USD80 in 2H21, as cartel members are keen to keep prices elevated to balance budgets at home, but not so high as to spur a fresh push into renewables.

There are 3 implications for Asia. Dearer oil is a drag on economic activity, and resource-scarce Singapore stands to lose out the most. Rising oil prices risk fanning inflationary pressures further, which is particularly salient in India ahead of June’s CPI print. At a time of economic normalisation, elevated oil prices will feed into a ballooning import bill and exacerbates the external imbalances in India, Indonesia and the Philippines


With US Shale Relegated To The Sidelines, Oil Prices Are In A Sweet Spot But Risks Abound