Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Oil Prices Are Poised For A Correction But Supply Remains The Wildcard

Oil Price Surge and Macro: Are We Near A Turning Point?

Asian Resilience in a Changed Global Environment (1)

With US Shale Relegated To The Sidelines, Oil Prices Are In A Sweet Spot But Risks Abound

Weekly Oil Views: Lingering OPEC+ Deadlock Brings Bearish Tail Risks in View

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Eyes Slow and Modest Easing of Output Cuts

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Supply-side bottlenecks push prices up: With US shale producers remaining on the sidelines and OPEC rebuffing the White House's calls to crank the pumps, crude Brent is set to test the USD85-resistance level.</li>
<li>
But what goes up must come down: Higher oil prices represent a stern test of OPEC+'s ability and discipline to maintain existing curbs, particularly as the shift toward renewables accelerate and spur a rush to pump before fossil fuels turn into stranded assets.</li>
<li>India, Thailand and Singapore are most at risk from the oil price hikes, with Hong Kong, China and Vietnam at the other end of the spectrum.</li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;"> </td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">Primary Energy consumption (%)</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">Inflation weights (%)</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">CPI sensitivity to oil shock (%)</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">Oil import intensity (%)</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">Z-score, the lower the better</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">HK</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">70.0</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">3.3</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">2.5</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">1.6</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">-2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">CN</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">19.7</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">8.2</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">2.6</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">9.9</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">-2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">VN</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">25.9</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">9.7</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">7.1</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">1.8</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">-1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">ID</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">38.0</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">11.5</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">0.5</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">8.2</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">-1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">PH</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">45.0</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">8.6</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">10.5</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">1.4</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">-0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">KR</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">42.9</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">9.6</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">5.8</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">12.4</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">SG</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">86.1</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">5.0</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">4.8</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">14.9</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">TH</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">48.5</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">11.8</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">14.0</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">7.8</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">MY</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">36.8</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">11.1</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">17.5</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">9.7</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 52.65pt;">IN</td>
<td style="width: 58.35pt;">30.1</td>
<td style="width: 57.9pt;">15.4</td>
<td style="width: 57.1pt;">1.9</td>
<td style="width: 58.05pt;">23.6</td>
<td style="width: 56.5pt;">2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: CEIC, Centennial Asia Advisors</div>



Supply-side bottlenecks push prices up: With US shale producers remaining on the sidelines and OPEC rebuffing the White House's calls to crank the pumps, crude Brent is set to test the USD85-resistance level.

But what goes up must come down: Higher oil prices represent a stern test of OPEC+'s ability and discipline to maintain existing curbs, particularly as the shift toward renewables accelerate and spur a rush to pump before fossil fuels turn into stranded assets.
India, Thailand and Singapore are most at risk from the oil price hikes, with Hong Kong, China and Vietnam at the other end of the spectrum.


 
Primary Energy consumption (%)
Inflation weights (%)
CPI sensitivity to oil shock (%)
Oil import intensity (%)
Z-score, the lower the better


HK
70.0
3.3
2.5
1.6
-2.5


CN
19.7
8.2
2.6
9.9
-2.3


VN
25.9
9.7
7.1
1.8
-1.9


ID
38.0
11.5
0.5
8.2
-1.0


PH
45.0
8.6
10.5
1.4
-0.7


KR
42.9
9.6
5.8
12.4
0.3


SG
86.1
5.0
4.8
14.9
1.4


TH
48.5
11.8
14.0
7.8
2.1


MY
36.8
11.1
17.5
9.7
2.2


IN
30.1
15.4
1.9
23.6
2.4

Source: CEIC, Centennial Asia Advisors

Oil Markets Tighten, But For How Long?