Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Shyam Devani provides key market commentary encompassing analysis of Foreign Exchange, Fixed Income, Commodities, and Equities globally – both in G10 and Local Markets. He takes a multi asset class approach incorporating fundamental, behavioural, and historical trends as well as technical signals.

Shyam has delivered strategic market insights to a number of trading desks and institutional clients internationally (funds/corporates/banks) through written publications, presentations, face to face meetings and conferences. He has had numerous appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Singapore Radio providing his short and medium term views on markets while being the front office media commentator during his time at Citi.

He has been commentating on financial markets since 2004. Since 2006, he was running one of Citi’s top market products, CitiFXTechnicals, initially in London followed by Singapore where he took a lead role in enhancing the coverage of markets in Asia.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Alpha Bites: Long Korean Won Vs Short Chinese Renminbi

FX Dashboard: Time to Hedge EM FX with Euro Again

FX Dashboard: How Have the Sensitivities of EM FX to US Dollar Evolved?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

Sometimes it is not what the market does but rather what the market does not do that can be more telling.The USD is down almost across the board following concerning sentiment data from the US which also took yields lower. BUT…Why is USDCNH unchanged?It brings us back to the conversation of ‘currency wars’The Renminbi basket has been trading near its multi year highs for several weeks. It is perhaps why the Chinese changed their RRR policy a few weeks ago. Recent data reflects a more relaxed recovery in China as it is worse than expected – see retail sales and industrial production as latest examples. The Covid situation in China is far from over as news, including partial closure of ports, clearly shows. In basic terms China is uncomfortable with its current situation and needs support. Given the rise of the Renminbi in broad terms over the past year, it appears now might be the time for that support to come in the form of a weaker currency.It is with this in mind that we must pay further attention to EURCNH which is turning from the covid panic lows of 2020. What business does it have trading around 7.60? The price action developments suggest we move higher. The technicals on the chart suggest the same. The logical path following the height of the Renminbi basket also points to the same, especially if this is the start of a decent enough short term move down on the USD.This possible tactical ‘rotation’ or ‘USD diversification’ on part of China (if indeed that is what we are seeing) could add further support to EURUSD, which once again has held on to good levels at 1.17.

Sometimes it is not what the market does but rather what the market does not do that can be more telling.The USD is down almost across the board following concerning sentiment data from the US which also took yields lower. BUT…Why is USDCNH unchanged?It brings us back to the conversation of ‘currency wars’The Renminbi basket has been trading near its multi year highs for several weeks. It is perhaps why the Chinese changed their RRR policy a few weeks ago. Recent data reflects a more relaxed recovery in China as it is worse than expected – see retail sales and industrial production as latest examples. The Covid situation in China is far from over as news, including partial closure of ports, clearly shows. In basic terms China is uncomfortable with its current situation and needs support. Given the rise of the Renminbi in broad terms over the past year, it appears now might be the time for that support to come in the form of a weaker currency.It is with this in mind that we must pay further attention to EURCNH which is turning from the covid panic lows of 2020. What business does it have trading around 7.60? The price action developments suggest we move higher. The technicals on the chart suggest the same. The logical path following the height of the Renminbi basket also points to the same, especially if this is the start of a decent enough short term move down on the USD.This possible tactical ‘rotation’ or ‘USD diversification’ on part of China (if indeed that is what we are seeing) could add further support to EURUSD, which once again has held on to good levels at 1.17.

CNY

What About the Renminbi?