Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<p>Despite its record longevity, the current economic cycle is not indebted to excessive reliance on the housing sector. There is growing optimism that the demand and supply-side headwinds that have impacted housing over the past decade may be abating.</p>
<div>Despite the efforts by the Fed to boost housing demand via quantitative easing, mortgage lending standards were extremely tight in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing demand was also stymied by lower household formation and a shift in preference towards renting. Lower lending capacity may also have hindered housing demand due to the sharp decline in community banks over the past decade, thereby leaving a void hitherto unsatiated by larger banks.</div>
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<div>The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) have cited a multitude of supply-side factors, ranging from labour shortages to excessive regulation, for the underbuilding of new housing stock. Notably, labour shortages have been both significant and persistent problems as home builders continue to struggle to attract and retain workers.</div>
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<div>Significant addition to the housing stock needs to take place during the next decade to make up for the supply-demand imbalance built-up over the past 10 years, particularly in the urban counties inhabited by Millennials who favour new single family structures. Meanwhile, Generation X households will be entering their prime earning years and could provide the source of demand for 50% of the next decade's new single family structures.</div>
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<div>Efforts to improve affordability will be critical in bring housing supply into better alignment with demand over the next decade, notably effective measures to attract and retain labour in residential construction. Arguably, bank lending standards to home builders and land developers also require to be less tight. Meanwhile, the Fed's ability to keep mortgage rates low, thereby keeping housing more affordable, will be enhanced by further capital infusions into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Trump Administration planned in 2020.               </div>
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Despite its record longevity, the current economic cycle is not indebted to excessive reliance on the housing sector. There is growing optimism that the demand and supply-side headwinds that have impacted housing over the past decade may be abating.
Despite the efforts by the Fed to boost housing demand via quantitative easing, mortgage lending standards were extremely tight in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing demand was also stymied by lower household formation and a shift in preference towards renting. Lower lending capacity may also have hindered housing demand due to the sharp decline in community banks over the past decade, thereby leaving a void hitherto unsatiated by larger banks.


The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) have cited a multitude of supply-side factors, ranging from labour shortages to excessive regulation, for the underbuilding of new housing stock. Notably, labour shortages have been both significant and persistent problems as home builders continue to struggle to attract and retain workers.


Significant addition to the housing stock needs to take place during the next decade to make up for the supply-demand imbalance built-up over the past 10 years, particularly in the urban counties inhabited by Millennials who favour new single family structures. Meanwhile, Generation X households will be entering their prime earning years and could provide the source of demand for 50% of the next decade's new single family structures.

Efforts to improve affordability will be critical in bring housing supply into better alignment with demand over the next decade, notably effective measures to attract and retain labour in residential construction. Arguably, bank lending standards to home builders and land developers also require to be less tight. Meanwhile, the Fed's ability to keep mortgage rates low, thereby keeping housing more affordable, will be enhanced by further capital infusions into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Trump Administration planned in 2020.               




US Housing Outlook: Reduced Headwinds, but Improvements to Affordability Are Critical