Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.</li>
<li>We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.</li>
<li>Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.</li>
</ul>


Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.
We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.
Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Goldlion Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes and manufactures garments and accessories.  The Company also invests in properties and operates a commercial center with restaurants and a business center.

<ul>
<li>In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.</li>
<li>In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion's performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.</li>
<li>Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion's potential strategic transformation and  the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.</li>
</ul>


In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.
In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion's performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.
Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion's potential strategic transformation and  the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Acceptable

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.</li>
<li>Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.</li>
<li>Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.</li>
</ul>


The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.
Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.
Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.


ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Baudroie,inc. offers information technology services. The Company provides information technology infrastructure development, cloud introduction supporting, network integration, security construction, and other services. Baudroie provides its services throughout Japan.

<ul>
<li>In late November of 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a> announced it would try to move to TSE Prime and that day they announced a 2.76mm share secondary offering and a buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback was a bit less than a quarter of the offering. Fast forward 3mos and in early March the company announced it would move to Prime. Yesterday it did.</li>
<li>That puts the company in line for a TOPIX inclusion in end-April , and likely other index effects later. In the meantime, earnings and guidance are out ~10 April. </li>
</ul>


In late November of 2024, Baudroie (4413 JP) announced it would try to move to TSE Prime and that day they announced a 2.76mm share secondary offering and a buyback.
The buyback was a bit less than a quarter of the offering. Fast forward 3mos and in early March the company announced it would move to Prime. Yesterday it did.
That puts the company in line for a TOPIX inclusion in end-April , and likely other index effects later. In the meantime, earnings and guidance are out ~10 April. 


Baudroie (4413 JP) - Fast Growth, Prime Promotion, and TOPIX Inclusion

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Worldwide silicon wafer shipments decreased by 2.7% to 12,266 million square inches in 2024, details here. This follows a 14.3% decline in the prior year.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer companies continue to trade at historic lows with two of the top four players sporting P/B ratios of 0.7. Intel's P/B is presently 0.9. This makes little sense.</li>
<li>The current depreciation headwinds triggered by a huge CapEx splurge from 2021-2024 will turn to tailwinds once demand recovers and built-ahead production capacity stands ready &amp; waiting.</li>
</ul>


Worldwide silicon wafer shipments decreased by 2.7% to 12,266 million square inches in 2024, details here. This follows a 14.3% decline in the prior year.
Silicon wafer companies continue to trade at historic lows with two of the top four players sporting P/B ratios of 0.7. Intel's P/B is presently 0.9. This makes little sense.
The current depreciation headwinds triggered by a huge CapEx splurge from 2021-2024 will turn to tailwinds once demand recovers and built-ahead production capacity stands ready &amp; waiting.


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