Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology

UK: Covid-Costs Passed to Consumers in Jul-20

UK: Disinflation in Apr-20 Confirms Dovish Space

UK Inflation: Wile E. Coyote Moment in Mar-20

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation data matched expectations for the CPI to slow to 0.5% y-o-y while the RPI was 18bp below my forecast at 1.04%. The latter surprise occurred as MIPs returned to reality after an acknowledged official mistake.</li>
<li>Energy does not appear to be rising to the expected extent as wholesale prices rebound, and alcohol price declines in Jun-20 weigh further on my forecast.</li>
<li>The trough in my CPI forecast has fallen by 0.1pp since last month’s release to 0.4% in July, but I do not expect the RPI rate to dip below 1%. A prolonged period of well below-target inflation provides plenty of space for the MPC to stay dovish.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation data matched expectations for the CPI to slow to 0.5% y-o-y while the RPI was 18bp below my forecast at 1.04%. The latter surprise occurred as MIPs returned to reality after an acknowledged official mistake.
Energy does not appear to be rising to the expected extent as wholesale prices rebound, and alcohol price declines in Jun-20 weigh further on my forecast.
The trough in my CPI forecast has fallen by 0.1pp since last month’s release to 0.4% in July, but I do not expect the RPI rate to dip below 1%. A prolonged period of well below-target inflation provides plenty of space for the MPC to stay dovish.


UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough

United Kingdom

UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough