Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Disinflation in Apr-20 Confirms Dovish Space

UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough

UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology

UK Inflation: Descending Towards a New Trough

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation data were relatively stable in Mar-20, with the CPI dipping to 1.5% while the RPI surprisingly increased to 2.6% y-o-y. Clothing prices were weak as demand disappeared, but transport prices were remarkably resilient.</li>
<li>A slew of substantial disinflationary shocks hit in April. Weakness in petrol and airfares appears more backloaded, Ofgem and Ofwat regulated cuts, council tax increases were smaller, and banks slashed mortgage rates after the BoE cuts.</li>
<li>So, a bit like Wile E. Coyote, the inflation data are currently running on thin air and are set to crash in the next release. Underlying rates remain healthy, but the depth of the decline and duration below-target provides the BoE with dovish cover.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation data were relatively stable in Mar-20, with the CPI dipping to 1.5% while the RPI surprisingly increased to 2.6% y-o-y. Clothing prices were weak as demand disappeared, but transport prices were remarkably resilient.
A slew of substantial disinflationary shocks hit in April. Weakness in petrol and airfares appears more backloaded, Ofgem and Ofwat regulated cuts, council tax increases were smaller, and banks slashed mortgage rates after the BoE cuts.
So, a bit like Wile E. Coyote, the inflation data are currently running on thin air and are set to crash in the next release. Underlying rates remain healthy, but the depth of the decline and duration below-target provides the BoE with dovish cover.


UK Inflation: Wile E. Coyote Moment in Mar-20