Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Covid-Costs Passed to Consumers in Jul-20

UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough

UK: Disinflation in Apr-20 Confirms Dovish Space

UK Inflation: Wile E. Coyote Moment in Mar-20

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation data was broadly slightly stronger than the Consensus expected in Jun-20 as the CPI rate increased to 0.6% and the RPI to 1.1%. Clothing, furniture, and recreation prices were all surprisingly high, with some offset in restaurants.</li>
<li>Probable payback in clothing prices means the fundamentals of this release cause little change to my CPI forecast. That same pressure knocks my RPI forecast down by about a tenth, despite the headline outcome being in line with my expectations.</li>
<li>August is an exception to the broader changes as the ONS has somewhat incredibly decided to incorporate the “eat out to help out” scheme’s discount at an item level. That smashes almost 0.6pp from inflation in August.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation data was broadly slightly stronger than the Consensus expected in Jun-20 as the CPI rate increased to 0.6% and the RPI to 1.1%. Clothing, furniture, and recreation prices were all surprisingly high, with some offset in restaurants.
Probable payback in clothing prices means the fundamentals of this release cause little change to my CPI forecast. That same pressure knocks my RPI forecast down by about a tenth, despite the headline outcome being in line with my expectations.
August is an exception to the broader changes as the ONS has somewhat incredibly decided to incorporate the “eat out to help out” scheme’s discount at an item level. That smashes almost 0.6pp from inflation in August.


UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology