Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

DRAM & NAND Spot Prices Indicate Impending Fall

UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology

UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough

UK: Disinflation in Apr-20 Confirms Dovish Space

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation data for Jul-20 delivered a surprise surge to 1% on the CPI and 1.6% on the RPI. Most prices have now ceased to be imputed, and the return to reality has proven highly inflationary as companies pass on their Covid-costs to consumers.</li>
<li>Summer sales scarcely existed for clothing, which reduces the room for a seasonal rebound. The upside in most other areas looks likely to persist in the price level until Covid-costs can ease, including related to PPE use.</li>
<li>A sharp drop is still set for August amid the “eat out to help out” scheme’s somewhat controversial inclusion in the basket. The higher starting point means I now see the CPI trough falling only marginally below zero.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation data for Jul-20 delivered a surprise surge to 1% on the CPI and 1.6% on the RPI. Most prices have now ceased to be imputed, and the return to reality has proven highly inflationary as companies pass on their Covid-costs to consumers.
Summer sales scarcely existed for clothing, which reduces the room for a seasonal rebound. The upside in most other areas looks likely to persist in the price level until Covid-costs can ease, including related to PPE use.
A sharp drop is still set for August amid the “eat out to help out” scheme’s somewhat controversial inclusion in the basket. The higher starting point means I now see the CPI trough falling only marginally below zero.


UK: Covid-Costs Passed to Consumers in Jul-20