Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Covid-Costs Passed to Consumers in Jul-20

UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology

UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation data delivered another upside surprise in Aug-20 as restaurant prices were resilient again. Puny pass-through of EOHO and VAT should unwind in Sep-20 and Feb-21 respectively with the expiration of those schemes.</li>
<li>A failure of airfares to seasonally increase for the summer holidays offset the other upside news for the RPI. Airfares no longer have the normal room to decline in September. The risk of flat yearend seasonal factors increases on this behaviour.</li>
<li>Inflation and many “core” measures will remain highly volatile during these shocks, but the median is smoothly trending higher. Underlying levels are still consistent with below-target inflation over policy-relevant horizons, thereby easing more QE.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation data delivered another upside surprise in Aug-20 as restaurant prices were resilient again. Puny pass-through of EOHO and VAT should unwind in Sep-20 and Feb-21 respectively with the expiration of those schemes.
A failure of airfares to seasonally increase for the summer holidays offset the other upside news for the RPI. Airfares no longer have the normal room to decline in September. The risk of flat yearend seasonal factors increases on this behaviour.
Inflation and many “core” measures will remain highly volatile during these shocks, but the median is smoothly trending higher. Underlying levels are still consistent with below-target inflation over policy-relevant horizons, thereby easing more QE.


UK: Puny Pass-Through of VAT and EOHO