Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Benchmark UK GDP revisions raised the level without changing trends, fiscal space, or public sector performance. Our Q3 GDP forecast rounds down to -0.1% q-o-q.</li>
<li>UK GDP data remain resilient relative to recent labour market data, while the EA is nearer the opposite. Residual seasonality appears to have corrupted both narratives.</li>
<li>The artificial depression in surveys and UK employment is at its seasonal worst. A reversal still underpins our contrarian hawkish November BoE call and Euro optimism.</li>
</ul>


Benchmark UK GDP revisions raised the level without changing trends, fiscal space, or public sector performance. Our Q3 GDP forecast rounds down to -0.1% q-o-q.
UK GDP data remain resilient relative to recent labour market data, while the EA is nearer the opposite. Residual seasonality appears to have corrupted both narratives.
The artificial depression in surveys and UK employment is at its seasonal worst. A reversal still underpins our contrarian hawkish November BoE call and Euro optimism.


UK Data Changes Yet Stay The Same