Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP disappointed by falling 0.3% m-o-m in Oct-23 rather than stalling. This drop reverses the surprising strength in Sep-23 and keeps GDP’s 2023 level broadly flat.</li>
<li>Payback infected industries in the private sector in both directions while funds kept pouring into the public sector. The PMI-comparable sectors have remained flat.</li>
<li>We now track no GDP growth in Q4, with the productivity lost to ongoing employment growth stoking unit labour costs. The inflation outlook is inconsistent with rate cuts.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP disappointed by falling 0.3% m-o-m in Oct-23 rather than stalling. This drop reverses the surprising strength in Sep-23 and keeps GDP’s 2023 level broadly flat.
Payback infected industries in the private sector in both directions while funds kept pouring into the public sector. The PMI-comparable sectors have remained flat.
We now track no GDP growth in Q4, with the productivity lost to ongoing employment growth stoking unit labour costs. The inflation outlook is inconsistent with rate cuts.


UK: Private Payback Flattens GDP