bullish

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

360 Views03 Jun 2022 07:29
Syndicated
SUMMARY
  • Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.
  • In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.
  • Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.
Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:
  • Unlock research summaries
  • Follow top, independent analysts
  • Receive personalised alerts
  • Access Analytics, Events and more

Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.

Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.

or
Already have an account? Sign In Now
Discussions
(Paid Plans Only)
chart-bar
Logo
Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Macroeconomic and Investing
The Macro Compass
Multi-AssetMacroeconomics
x