Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Where in Asia Is Duration Risk Worthwhile?

Alpha Bites: Long Malaysian Ringgit Vs Short Chinese Renminbi

FX Dashboard: Spillover Risk from China to EM FX

Rates 10y Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 2

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries Stand to Benefit if US Rates Vol Keeps Falling?

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

FX & Rates

<p>While our base case is not one of a repeat of the reflationary scare from earlier this year, we need to be cognizant of the risk with the Fed beginning to tiptoe towards tapering. As such, similar to an earlier analysis on currencies, we evaluate which EM rates are the most vulnerable if there is another steep correction in US Treasuries.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

While our base case is not one of a repeat of the reflationary scare from earlier this year, we need to be cognizant of the risk with the Fed beginning to tiptoe towards tapering. As such, similar to an earlier analysis on currencies, we evaluate which EM rates are the most vulnerable if there is another steep correction in US Treasuries.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Rates Are Most Vulnerable to Rising US Rates?

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Rates Are Most Vulnerable to Rising US Rates?