Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which Countries Are Outliers Within EM Rates This Year?

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Real Rates in EM than in DM

Rates 10y Dashboard: Attractive Yield Pick-Up of EM Local Debt over DM

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<p>The spread between EM and US 10y rates is close to its widest since 2012 on the back of monetary policy tightening and higher fiscal deficits in EM along with rising political risk in some emerging countries. After initially weakening as the EM-US 10y spread widened, EM currencies are no longer tracking EM rates. An environment where a country pursues restrictive monetary policy combined with expansionary fiscal policy, as most emerging countries are currently doing, is generally positive for its currency. As such, we expect the low correlation between EM rates and FX to persist on aggregate.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

The spread between EM and US 10y rates is close to its widest since 2012 on the back of monetary policy tightening and higher fiscal deficits in EM along with rising political risk in some emerging countries. After initially weakening as the EM-US 10y spread widened, EM currencies are no longer tracking EM rates. An environment where a country pursues restrictive monetary policy combined with expansionary fiscal policy, as most emerging countries are currently doing, is generally positive for its currency. As such, we expect the low correlation between EM rates and FX to persist on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Risk Premium in EM Rates Than in EM FX to Persist

CZK 10Y

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Risk Premium in EM Rates Than in EM FX to Persist