European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Philip Morris/Swedish Match: Trading Tight to Terms

Carlyle/Vectura Group: Expectations of a Sweetened Bid

Philip Morris Outbids Carlyle in Healthcare Push

CD&R/UDG Healthcare: Recommended Cash Offer

Event-Driven

As per <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/philip-morris-lifts-bid-uks-vectura-165-pence-per-share-2021-08-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>, on 8 August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philip-morris-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13328:1" rel="noopener">Philip Morris International (PM US)</a> raised its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vectura-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22201:1" rel="noopener">Vectura (VEC LN)</a> to 165p/share, c. 6.5% higher than the last recommended 155p/share bid on 6 August by Murano Bidco (Carlyle).
The improved bid by Philip Morris is c. 2.5% above the TP in my last insight, and represents 17.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. It reflects a full price, in my view. Vectura has strategic value for Philip Morris "PMI intends to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business".
My new TP is 165p, as I believe that the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation issued for the last Carlyle offer and will recommend the last offer by Philip Morris, which is determined to win. On this basis, I reiterate long VEC LN. Gross spread is 0.6%, with limited downside, in my view.
Shares of Vectura may increase over the last offer by Philip Morris upon market opening on 9 August.

As per Reuters, on 8 August Philip Morris International (PM US) raised its bid for Vectura (VEC LN) to 165p/share, c. 6.5% higher than the last recommended 155p/share bid on 6 August by Murano Bidco (Carlyle).
The improved bid by Philip Morris is c. 2.5% above the TP in my last insight, and represents 17.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. It reflects a full price, in my view. Vectura has strategic value for Philip Morris "PMI intends to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business".
My new TP is 165p, as I believe that the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation issued for the last Carlyle offer and will recommend the last offer by Philip Morris, which is determined to win. On this basis, I reiterate long VEC LN. Gross spread is 0.6%, with limited downside, in my view.
Shares of Vectura may increase over the last offer by Philip Morris upon market opening on 9 August. 

Vectura

Race for Vectura Continues