European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Carlyle/Vectura Group: Expectations of a Sweetened Bid

CD&R/UDG Healthcare: Recommended Cash Offer

Event-Driven

<p>On 9 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philip-morris-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13328:1" rel="noopener">Philip Morris International (PM US)</a> agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vectura-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22201:1" rel="noopener">Vectura (VEC LN)</a> for 150p/share, approximately £918 mn via a scheme of arrangement.</p>
<ul class="">
<li>This is a 10.3% increase over Carlyle's offer and 3.4% above my TP ex-dividend.</li>
<li>In my prior insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/carlyle-vectura-group-expectations-of-a-sweetened-bid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52066" rel="noopener">Carlyle/Vectura Group: Expectations of a Sweetened Bid</a>, I mentioned the market expected a sweetened bid.</li>
<li>Vectura paid a 19p dividend on 11 June.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>Philip Morris is expanding into products beyond tobacco and nicotine, as part of a natural evolution into a broader healthcare and wellness company. In February 2021, it announced its ambition to generate at least $1 bn in annual net revenues from Beyond Nicotine products by 2025 and identified respiratory drug delivery and self-care wellness as a key focus, for which it is expanding its capabilities in inhaled and oral product formulations.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The Vectura Directors have withdrawn their recommendation of the Carlyle Offer and will adjourn the Carlyle Offer Shareholder Meetings convened for 12 July 2021.</p>
<p>The market expects a raised offer by Carlyle, which seeks to scale Vectura's business. At the same time, Vectura is strategic in the new quest of Philip Morris.</p>
<p>New <strong>TP</strong> (comps based) of <strong>161p</strong> ($2.24). This is 7% above Philip Morris's offer, and 3.9% over the closing share price of 9 July.</p>
<p>Recommendation is <strong>long VEC LN</strong>.</p>

On 9 July, Philip Morris International (PM US) agreed to acquire Vectura (VEC LN) for 150p/share, approximately £918 mn via a scheme of arrangement.

This is a 10.3% increase over Carlyle's offer and 3.4% above my TP ex-dividend.
In my prior insight Carlyle/Vectura Group: Expectations of a Sweetened Bid, I mentioned the market expected a sweetened bid.
Vectura paid a 19p dividend on 11 June.




Philip Morris is expanding into products beyond tobacco and nicotine, as part of a natural evolution into a broader healthcare and wellness company. In February 2021, it announced its ambition to generate at least $1 bn in annual net revenues from Beyond Nicotine products by 2025 and identified respiratory drug delivery and self-care wellness as a key focus, for which it is expanding its capabilities in inhaled and oral product formulations.



The Vectura Directors have withdrawn their recommendation of the Carlyle Offer and will adjourn the Carlyle Offer Shareholder Meetings convened for 12 July 2021.
The market expects a raised offer by Carlyle, which seeks to scale Vectura's business. At the same time, Vectura is strategic in the new quest of Philip Morris.
New TP (comps based) of 161p ($2.24). This is 7% above Philip Morris's offer, and 3.9% over the closing share price of 9 July.
Recommendation is long VEC LN.

Philip Morris Outbids Carlyle in Healthcare Push